Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1101 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2013

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1100 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2013

Have dropped the first (western) Tornado Watch as the squall line
continues to move east.

The eastern two watches remain in effect.  The vigorous squall line
has been producing wind gusts of 50 to nearly 70 mph, and also
continues to produce circulations on radar over southern Kentucky.

Issued at 1013 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2013

New convective line cruising across central Kentucky may still be
capable of putting down some damaging wind gusts.  Elected to go
with a Tornado Watch in the south where there is more instability
and a less worked-over atmosphere, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
in the northeast where there has been more rain and less instability.

Flood Watch and Wind Advisory continue unchanged.

Will shave counties off the watches as the line plows through.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2013

...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND
GUSTY SYNOPTIC WINDS CONTINUES TONIGHT...

The area of low pressure this afternoon stretches across Arkansas
with a cold front trailing down into southeastern Texas and a
quasi-stationary boundary draped across southern Indiana. Portions
of our far northern tier of counties have been on the cold side of
this boundary. However, it has shifted to the north just a bit this
afternoon. Temperatures across the warm sector have warmed into the
mid to upper 60s with dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Precipitation this afternoon has become more scattered in nature
with the band of widespread rain lifting to the north as expected.
As the low pressure system rides northeast just north of the Ohio
River tonight the precipitation ahead of the cold front is expected
to evolve into a line of strong to severe thunderstorms. The models
are having a hard time pinpointing the timing with this system. The
mesoscale models (NMM/ARW) seem to have the best handle on it (and
bring it through the fastest), bringing the system through the
forecast area between 02-08Z tonight. Instability ahead of this line
will be a bit in question. South central Kentucky is most likely to
become unstable ahead of this line with the models depicting
anywhere from 100-600 J/kg CAPE. Damaging winds will be the greatest
threat as winds 2 kft above the surface are forecast to increase to
50-60 knots. However, isolated tornadoes may spin up along the line
as well. Further north along the Ohio River, in southern IN, and
into the Bluegrass region of Kentucky there is even more question
about instability. There may be a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms further north, but the better chance will be across
the southern half of the forecast area. Ahead of the line of storms
winds are still expected to be quite gusty, so will leave the Wind
Advisory in place. Gusts to 40 mph will be possible outside of any
thunderstorms.

The heavy rainfall continues to be a concern as well, primarily
across southern Indiana. Up to two inches of rain has fallen along
and north of the Ohio River already today, with 1 to locally 3
inches more expected. Some ponding of water in low lying areas and
flood prone spots will be possible tonight. Additionally, all the
water will lead to some flooding on area rivers into next week.

Beyond tonight, some light showers may develop again tomorrow into
tomorrow night along a reinforcing cold front moving through the
area tomorrow. However, these are not expected to be significant
enough to exacerbate any flooding.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2013

Deep upper trof will be the main player Monday into Tuesday. Cold
northerly low-level flow will bring a decent moisture plume south
off of Lake Michigan. Forecast soundings indicate that the moisture
will be too shallow to support any snow showers, but there is enough
QPF showing up to warrant a slight chance for rain showers in the
Bluegrass and the higher terrain just to the south and east.

Upper trof axis swings through Monday night, with an Arctic surface
high building in from the mid-Mississippi Valley behind it. Went
below guidance for Monday's highs due to cloud cover, but above
guidance Monday night as winds will stay up enough to keep temps
from bottoming out. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be the coldest as
the high moves across the Ohio Valley, with highs stuck in the 20s
and lows in the teens across most of the area.

The remainder of the week looks quiet as we remain under progressive
zonal flow. A weak cold front on Thursday will reinforce the chilly
air mass, but this system will be moisture-starved and the stronger
forcing will pass to our north. Will go with a slight chance, and
keep it rain or snow for now. Temps will run near or just below
climo for the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 602 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2013

Not much change in the thinking from earlier.  A squall line is
still expected to develop ahead of a strong front stretched out
along the lower Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  The line should
come through the BWG and SDF regions sometime around midnight (the
squall line has not yet developed, so this is still an entirely
forecast event as opposed to simply timing something in that has
already formed).  LEX should receive the worst storms during the wee
hours of the morning.  As with any strong storms, winds will be
strong and chaotic with rapidly varying ceilings and visibilities.

Behind the storms showers will continue for several more hours.
Will cautiously bring in low-end VFR conditions behind the squall
line, but that may be too optimistic.

Low clouds are then expected to come back in Sunday morning,
especially at SDF.

Gusty south winds this evening will become gusty WSW winds behind
the storms, and will eventually make it to northwesterly by Sunday
evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH through Sunday afternoon FOR KYZ023>034-038-061.

     WIND ADVISORY until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday FOR KYZ024>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLOOD WATCH through Sunday afternoon FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

     WIND ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Sunday FOR INZ078-079-090>092.

&&

Mesoscale......13
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1104 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

KYZ063>066-073>078-081-082-230415-
HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-
METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1104 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013 /1004 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ SUNDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 587 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS...BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KYZ035>037-039>043-045>049-053>057-067-230415-
FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-
MADISON KY-LINCOLN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...
BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...
HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...STANFORD
1104 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KYZ062-070>072-230415-
EDMONSON KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROWNSVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN
1004 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS NEAR 40
MPH AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

INZ078-079-090>092-KYZ024>033-061-230415-
SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-BUTLER KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...CORYDON...
NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...MORGANTOWN
1104 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013 /1004 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ SUNDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO LOCALLY THREE INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. STAY UP TO DATE OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THIS
RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING...RAPID SMALL STREAM AND
CREEK RISES...AND EVENTUAL LARGER RIVER RISES.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS NEAR 40
MPH AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

INZ076-077-083-084-089-KYZ023-230415-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HANCOCK KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...JASPER...MARENGO...
TELL CITY...HAWESVILLE
1104 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013 /1004 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ONE
TO LOCALLY THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. STAY UP TO DATE OF
THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCAL
FLOODING...RAPID SMALL STREAM AND CREEK RISES...AND EVENTUAL
LARGER RIVER RISES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KYZ034-038-230415-
SHELBY KY-SPENCER KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHELBYVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE
1104 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO LOCALLY THREE INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. STAY UP TO DATE OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THIS
RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING...RAPID SMALL STREAM AND
CREEK RISES...AND EVENTUAL LARGER RIVER RISES.

IN ADDITION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS NEAR
40 MPH AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1146 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 PM     TSTM WND GST     NICHOLASVILLE           37.88N  84.58W
12/21/2013  E50 MPH          JESSAMINE          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER CALLED IN ESTIMATED REPORT OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS
            BUT POTENTIALLY HIGHER. POWER OUTAGE ALSO REPORTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300694

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1147 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DANVILLE                37.64N  84.77W
12/21/2013                   BOYLE              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN ACROSS DANVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300695

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1149 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1141 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEITCHFIELD             37.48N  86.29W
12/21/2013                   GRAYSON            KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            FLOODING REPORTED ON THE 500 BLOCK OF MILL STREET IN
            LEITCHFIELD. ABOUT 8 INCHES OF WATER RUNNING ACROSS THE
            ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300696

LG

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