Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 PM EDT MON JUL 01 2013

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2013

Water vapor imagery suggests the upper-level low is centered
somewhere near Evansville. Inverted surface trough extends from the
Florida Panhandle into central and eastern Kentucky. Best coverage
of precip is over western Kentucky, while much of central Kentucky
is currently dry after being worked over by early morning
convection.

Expect additional destabilization the rest of the afternoon, so
pop-up storms will remain possible throughout the area. However, the
best coverage will continue to be south of the Parkways and
especially west of I-65.

Confidence is not too high regarding the specific timing, but expect
there will be waves of storms that lift north across Kentucky over
the next day and a half. As the upper low slowly retrogrades into
the Mississippi Valley, we will see a shift from synoptic forcing to
more diurnally driven storms. Coverage will still be fairly
extensive on Tuesday as we will be under a deep and moist SSW flow.

Will carry the highest chances in our western zones due to proximity
of the upper low, and in our eastern zones under the better
instability and slightly more dynamic SSW flow. In between will be an
alley of relatively lower POPs, but due to limited confidence the
range will be from 30% in the middle to 50-60% in the more favored
areas for precip. Pulse severe threat is greatest from south-central
Kentucky into the Bluegrass, with marginally severe hail and winds
possible with the strongest storms. Given recent heavy rainfall,
even sub-severe winds could be enough to knock down shallow-rooted
trees. Locally heavy rainfall will be a threat anywhere that is
impacted repeatedly. Temps will continue to run a few degrees below
normal for early July.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2013

...Unsettled weather pattern shaping up for much of the Ohio Valley
through much of this week...

Wednesday through Friday...

The synoptic deterministic and ensemble model runs continue to be in
good agreement throughout this portion of the forecast period.  Very
amplified and locked upper level flow is expected across the CONUS
as dueling upper level highs reign at the coasts with an upper level
low over the western Ohio Valley and the Midwest.  Today's data is
still suggesting that the upper level low over the Ohio Valley will
slowly retrograde westward with time as the Bermuda high to our east
also shifts west.  With the upper level low influencing our weather,
we're likely to see a diurnal variation of clouds and convection
with the highest concentration in the afternoon/eve and smallest
concentration in the late overnight hours.

By Thursday, the upper level low is forecast to get pinched off and
lift northward into the fast westerly flow across the US/Canadian
border region.  As this occurs, the Bermuda high will also continue
to move westward and allow a deep, southwesterly transport of rich
gulf air into the region.  The best chances of rainfall on the 4th
of July look to favor eastern KY...east of I-65.  As the high builds
more west, the moisture axis will shift further west and much of the
area stands to see a good amount of convection Friday and into
Friday night.  Overall, it is not going to be a total washout
through the period.  However, rounds of convection will be moving
through the region and most locations will see rainfall.
Precipitable water values will be above climatological normals
through the period.  That, combined with a slower that normal
mid-level flow will allow these storms to produce locally heavy
rainfall during the period. Basin average rainfall could approach 2
inches during the Wed-Fri timeframe.

Temperatures through the period will be below normal due to the
clouds and precipitation within the region.  Generally went close to
the weighted model and consensus allBlend guidance here which
results in highs in the lower 80s and overnight lows around 70.

Friday Night through Monday...

Bermuda ridge axis is forecast to retrograde to the west with time
through the long term portion of the forecast period.  This will
result in a more warmer and more moist airmass to become common over
the Ohio Valley.  With the increasing heights, it appears that we
should see a general decrease in afternoon/evening convective
coverage.  However, still think scattered thunderstorms will be a
good bet during the afternoon and evening hours, especially in the
western sections of the forecast area.  These storms will have
plenty of moisture to work with and with slow mid-level flow,
locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any storm.  Another
round of 1 to 2 inches will be possible across many basins.  So the
5-7 day precipitation accumulations could be on the order of 2-4
inches with locally higher amounts.  Maximum temperatures look to
warm closer to climatology during this time frame with afternoon
readings topping out lower-middle 80s on Saturday with middle to
upper 80s by Sunday and into Monday.  Overnight lows still look to
be around 70 each night.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2013

A dry slot is expanding into SDF and LEX at this hour, as convection
lifts into northern Kentucky. Expect a brief hole in the cu field
for an hour or two. However, showers and storms have already started
to re-fire from Fort Campbell to north of Nashville, and these
should lift far enough north by the valid time of the TAF that BWG
will be initialized with VCTS. By 20-21Z SDF and LEX will
destabilize enough to support VCTS, but direct impacts to any
airfield will be brief and difficult to time, so will maintain
prevailing VFR conditions.

Fog formation overnight will prove a challenging question. Model
guidance is pointing toward fog at BWG, and given the bias of that
station and the heavy rain that occurred there this morning, it
seems a good bet. Will take visibility down to MVFR shortly after
midnight, knowing that it could easily go IFR. Expect any fog to
lift into an MVFR stratus deck by mid-morning, with ceilings below
fuel-alternate thresholds. Will not advertise any fog in SDF or LEX
at this time, but if heavy rain affects either airport that forecast
is likely to change.

Winds generally less than 7 kt through the period, outside of any
thunderstorm activity. SDF will pick up out of the south Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........RAS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
419 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

KYZ047-048-055-056-067-012050-
BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-JESSAMINE KY-LINCOLN KY-MERCER KY-
419 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND 40 MPH
WINDS...

AT 416 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF DANVILLE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10
MPH.

HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS
OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  DANVILLE...
  DAVISTOWN...
  BOURNE...
  BRYANTSVILLE AND FAULCONER...
  TODDVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3783 8481 3782 8456 3755 8464 3759 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 177DEG 7KT 3768 8468

RAS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013

KYZ071-073-012110-
ALLEN KY-WARREN KY-
340 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 339 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREENWOOD TO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SCOTTSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS
OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  THREE SPRINGS...
  SCOTTSVILLE...
  PLUM SPRINGS...
  MOUNT VICTOR...
  MEMPHIS JUNCTION...
  WARREN COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT AND HALFWAY...
  FOREST SPRINGS...
  HARDCASTLE AND GREENHILL...
  BRISTOW AND RALEY FORD...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 20 AND 39.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1
AND 7.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8634 3674 8641 3681 8640 3682 8647
      3697 8658 3710 8630 3708 8627 3710 8622
      3700 8614 3692 8618 3693 8614 3690 8615
      3686 8610 3689 8611 3690 8608 3690 8607
      3681 8607 3674 8598 3669 8597 3663 8611
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 240DEG 14KT 3694 8643 3667 8623

RAS

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