River Flood Warning 16, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
932 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2013

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2013

Isentropic lift associated with a warm front has tapped into some
modest elevated instability to fuel deep convection along the
Kentucky/Tennessee border. Boundary layer will remain cool enough
overnight that we will have a hard time bringing any severe
convective weather down to the surface. However, storm motion
threatens to train over areas that received the heaviest rain Friday
night and earlier today. Special Weather Statement has been issued
for a cluster of storms producing excessive lightning south of
Bowling Green. Nothing has changed with the forecast as a whole, so
minimal updated to the grids. Believe that the main issue overnight
will be frequent lightning and localized nuisance flooding, which
will be best handled with short-fuse statements and/or advisories.
Severe convection may also be on the table as well, but those
chances remain quite low.

&&

.Short Term (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2013

The first wave of precipitation today is having trouble making its
way northward this afternoon. The rain has become less widespread
and lighter. However most of north central Kentucky should still
see some light showers through the afternoon hours.

The warm front associated with the surface low over Arkansas is
still south of the forecast area. It will continue to push northward
this afternoon and into the overnight hours as the low lifts to the
northeast across IL and IN. Another round of showers will move into
the region overnight as moisture surges in and instability
increases. Soundings show mid level lapse rates increasing and the
atmosphere becoming unstable in the warm sector overnight, so there
continues to be the chance for some thunderstorms tonight and
tomorrow.

A weak cold front will finally push through late tomorrow afternoon
into tomorrow evening, bringing an end to the precipitation. This
front will not have much colder air associated with it, however.

Temperatures tonight will be tricky as they look to remain near
steady
in some areas across south central Kentucky or even rise a few
degrees as the warm front moves north. Lows will likely only be in
the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures tomorrow will top out in the mid
to upper 60s with lows tomorrow night dropping back into the low 50s.

.Long Term (Monday - Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2013

A challenging long term forecast is in store with a weak upper
trough exiting the area early in the week and then a potent upper
low pushing into the Plains states for late in the week.

First of all, an exiting upper level trough will cause a few
remaining showers/rumbles of thunder on Monday.  This would be most
likely during the morning hours according to moisture profiles, so
have cut back on afternoon POPs.  High temps on Monday should stay
mild in the lower 70s for highs with low temps in the lower 50s.

We'll then see a dry day on Tues and most of the area should remain
dry on Wed as well as strong high pressure at the sfc and aloft
build over the eastern CONUS in response to a deepening trough over
the central CONUS.  Temperatures will warm up nicely Tues/Wed with
the ridging and southerly flow in place.  Expect highs to reach the
upper 70s and lower 80s both days with night time lows in the mid to
upper 50s.  Soundings on Wed look unstable so if we can get a little
upper level wave or disturbance in the flow, we could see some isld
convection.  Overall though, the main action looks to stay well to
our west so have trended POP values down and farther west.

For the latter half of the week, the 12Z GFS/GFS ensembles have come
into better agreement with the 12Z Euro (and previous Euro runs) in
the potent upper trough becoming a strong cut off low over the
Plains states by next weekend.  The low looks to wobble over the
Plains states for much of the weekend pushing vort waves eastward in
our direction.  This should cause showers/t-storms over the area
Thurs-Sat with the better day looking like Sat at this point.  A
good portion of Thurs/Fri may actually be dry but that's hard to pin
down at this point, so will leave low POPs in the forecast.  Temps
Thurs-Sat will be highly dependent on the precip but overall the
forecast looks warmer than previously thought as long as the models
continue to agree that the upper low will stay well to our west.
Therefore went with highs ranging through the 60s and lowers 70s and
lows in the 40s for Thurs-Sat.  Stay tuned for coming updates on
this weekend's forecast as variations in the model guidance have
made this a low confidence forecast.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2013

Warm front is still over Tennessee, with an area of isentropic lift
triggering showers with embedded thunderstorms along the KY/TN line
southwest of BWG. SDF and LEX have seen MVFR ceilings lift above the
fuel-alternate threshold, but lower stratus is lurking as close as
HNB and FTK.

The challenge in this TAF issuance will be just how far north the
solid precip shield is able to spread, and how much of the night it
will drop conditions into IFR. Believe there is enough low-level
moisture advecting in to support lowering ceilings and what could be
a persistent rain during the night. Will take BWG down to IFR around
midnight, with SDF and LEX dropping to low-end MVFR. Thunder just
upstream of BWG will warrant at least a TEMPO group for TS, but the
threat diminishes in the less favorable environment farther north
and east. Therefore have gone with VCTS in SDF, which may even be on
the bullish side, and no mention in LEX.

By late Sunday morning, the upper trough axis will be far enough east
to
bring an end to the precip. However the boundary-layer flow will
remain out of the SW, and even from the south in LEX, and plentiful
low-level moisture will keep us under a high-end MVFR ceiling for
the bulk of the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Mesoscale........RAS
Short Term.......EER
Long Term........AMS
Aviation.........RAS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
749 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

KYZ070>073-280115-
ALLEN KY-LOGAN KY-SIMPSON KY-WARREN KY-
749 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...

THROUGH 9 PM...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND PONDING OF WATER
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS THESE
STORMS MOVE THROUGH.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  FRANKLIN...
  THREE SPRINGS...
  SCOTTSVILLE...
  RUSSELLVILLE...
  PLUM SPRINGS...
  TURNERTOWN...
  SALMONS...
  HILLSDALE AND WOODBURN...
  TEMPERANCE AND MATLOCK...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 20 AND 6.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1
AND 7.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 8636 3664 8706 3684 8706 3707 8623
      3696 8615 3692 8618 3691 8615 3693 8614
      3690 8615 3686 8610 3689 8610 3688 8610
      3681 8607 3678 8603 3677 8605 3675 8601
      3666 8595 3663 8597 3663 8606
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 256DEG 26KT 3676 8667

RAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
750 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

KYZ070>073-280115-
ALLEN KY-LOGAN KY-SIMPSON KY-WARREN KY-
750 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...

THROUGH 9 PM...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND PONDING OF WATER
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS THESE
STORMS MOVE THROUGH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  FRANKLIN...
  THREE SPRINGS...
  SCOTTSVILLE...
  RUSSELLVILLE...
  PLUM SPRINGS...
  TURNERTOWN...
  SALMONS...
  HILLSDALE AND WOODBURN...
  TEMPERANCE AND MATLOCK...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 20 AND 6.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1
AND 7.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 8636 3664 8706 3684 8706 3707 8623
      3696 8615 3692 8618 3691 8615 3693 8614
      3690 8615 3686 8610 3689 8610 3688 8610
      3681 8607 3678 8603 3677 8605 3675 8601
      3666 8595 3663 8597 3663 8606
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 256DEG 26KT 3676 8667

RAS

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