Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Louisville, KY

413 
WGUS73 KLMK 212027
FFSLMK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
427 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

KYC021-079-137-212230-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130821T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LINCOLN KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-
427 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL GARRARD...EASTERN BOYLE AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES...

AT 419 PM EDT...MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAD LIFTED NORTH OF THE 
AREA. ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH 5 PM EDT FOR THE WARNED 
AREA. RADAR HAS ESTIMATED THAT UP TO 4 INCHES HAD FALLEN ACROSS 
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH OF STANFORD...AND GARRARD 
COUNTY...NEAR LANCASTER. FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN 
LANCASTER...AND MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LANCASTER...

  IN ADDITION...HEDGEVILLE AND HUBBLE ARE INCLUDED IN THIS FLASH
  FLOOD WARNING.

  FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREA IN THIS WARNING...
  TRIBUTARY OF DIX RIVER OVERFLOWS CATHOLE BEND ROAD.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

REPORT FLOODING TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...POST YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET YOUR
REPORT USING HASHTAG L...M...K...SPOTTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3765 8454 3755 8450 3754 8476 3763 8475

$$

JSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2013

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2013

Water vapor imagery shows that the upper low now over eastern
Indiana has wrapped up into a cinnamon roll presentation, with the
axis of one last vort lobe trailing roughly along I-65. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms have popped east of this axis, with heavy
rain and frequent lightning as the main hazards. The forcing for
this activity should push far enough east by sunset that any evening
coverage will be isolated at best, but it still warrants a pre-1st
period in the text products.

Expect a muggy night, as there is not enough of a surface reflection
to bring about any change of air mass. Low temps in the upper
60s/around 70 will cross over afternoon dewpoints, so patchy fog
could very well be a concern, mainly in the areas that receive the
heaviest rain from this afternoon's convection. Will leave any fog
mention out, and allow the evening shift to iron out those details
based on precip coverage.

A cold front will drop southward into the Ohio Valley on Thursday,
and take its sweet time pushing through Kentucky Thursday night.
Precip coverage will increase through the day, especially across
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Will go with slight chance
POPs for south central Kentucky, ranging upward to high-end chance
over southern Indiana. Would go for a likely, if not definite POP,
if the time frame was not straddling 00Z. Severe weather potential
is limited due to upper dynamics staying well to our north, but the
moist and unstable environment will support similar storms to today
with heavy rainfall and gusty wind potential. Should be enough
breaks to allow for temps close to climo.

Even with the front through, any small changes in the air mass will
lag behind. Therefore will keep Thursday night on the warm and muggy
side.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2013

The start of the long term period will feature northwest flow aloft
over the Ohio Valley as a ridge builds across the west-central
CONUS.  This pattern will be short-lived, however, as the ridge
strengthens and expands its grip eastward into the Ohio Valley.
After potential storms on Friday, the building influence of the
upper ridge will make for generally dry and hot conditions for the
bulk of the long term period.

The start of the period will feature a very weak cold front/wind
shift that will slowly drift southeast into the Ohio Valley in
association with the weak northwest flow aloft.  Synoptic scale
models are struggling with the exact placement/strength of this
feature as it weakens and likely stalls across the Ohio Valley.
What is rather certain is that despite the frontal passage and light
northerly winds behind it, a rather unstable airmass will remain in
place Friday afternoon, with MLCAPEs 1500-2000 J/kg thanks to upper
60s dewpoints.  Think the front will make it into central/southern
KY by peak heating, thus have focused the highest pops here. But in
a generally uncapped atmosphere and northwest flow aloft, think
isolated storms could be possible as far north as the Ohio river on
Friday.  Temperatures will be tricky and highly dependent on
convection, thus will go with a general blend which puts
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

The front will make some southward progress by Friday night into
Saturday, allowing some slightly drier air to work into the region.
The real focus will then turn toward the west, as a rather
impressive upper ridge strengthens across the central United
States.  In fact, by Sunday afternoon, guidance projects the 500mb
high to be around 596 dam.  The real intense heat will likely stay
just west of the region, but the Ohio Valley will certainly feel an
increase in the heat and humidity throughout next week.  Have bumped
up highs a degree or two (now into the lower 90s next week)
throughout the long term period as this is quite a favorable pattern
for warm conditions (southwesterly surface flow, 850 temps around
18C, and generally dry conditions over the past few week or so).
This is far from a strong summertime "heatwave," but given the
generally cool conditions as of late, heat indices in the mid 90s
will feel quite uncomfortable.

Some of the guidance members try to spit out some precipitation on
Sunday and Monday afternoon.  However, with building heights aloft
and no real focus, just have a hard time buying into any
precipitation chances.  Therefore, will continue with a dry forecast
during this timeframe and into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2013

Main challenge in this TAF set is afternoon convection. Best chance
will be near LEX, where it will be a press time decision whether to
include VCTS/CB. Can't rule out a stray storm at BWG or SDF, but
probabilities are too low to include in the TAFs. Either way,
chances will decrease late in the afternoon as the upper low over
Indiana pulls east, giving way to ridging.

Clearing skies and light winds overnight. However, confidence in any
fog forecast is fairly low. NAM forecast soundings seem to have the
best handle on the moisture profile, but winds just off the deck are
progged to shift to westerly and increase to 15-20 kt. In spite of
temps crossing over current dewpoints, will only take BWG down to
MVFR, with VFR conditions at SDF and LEX. Heavy rain directly
impacting any one of the airports will warrant re-visiting this part
of the forecast by the 00Z issuance.

Cold front drops in on Thursday, with somewhat deeper mixing
resulting in a higher diurnally-driven Cu deck. Convection should
hold off until after 18Z, but chances remain too low to even include
in the SDF TAF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1127 AM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-221530-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1127 AM EDT WED AUG 21 2013 /1027 AM CDT WED AUG 21 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE STRONG TO SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

13/LG/RAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
134 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

KYZ056-057-211805-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
134 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN GARRARD AND INTO MADISON
COUNTY. ...

AT 129 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF LANCASTER...AND MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  RICHMOND...
  RUTHTON AND BALDWIN...
  CROW VALLEY AND NEWBY...
  MILLION AND KIRKSVILLE...
  SILVER CREEK AND BUGGYTOWN...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
87 AND 90.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3762 8436 3767 8455 3777 8453 3778 8451
      3780 8448 3781 8420
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 276DEG 11KT 3773 8446

JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
158 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

KYZ056-057-211830-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
158 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS MADISON COUNTY...

AT 155 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RICHMOND...AND MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  RICHMOND...
  LANCASTER...
  WHITES...
  TERRILL AND MIDDLETOWN...
  KINGSTON AND REEDS CROSSING...
  BOBTOWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 8409 3767 8409 3764 8412 3760 8411
      3758 8409 3756 8409 3756 8414 3754 8418
      3760 8461 3778 8448 3777 8408 3774 8407
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 284DEG 14KT 3767 8433

JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

KYZ054-055-066-067-211945-
BOYLE KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-MARION KY-
316 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

...A STATIONARY LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS ALIGNED OVER SOUTHERN BOYLE COUNTY...

AT 309 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STATIONARY LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST OF
FORKLAND TO JUNCTION CITY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT MOVING AND WILL
BRING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN BOYLE COUNTY. A QUICK ONE TO
TWO INCHES ARE LIKELY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  JUNCTION CITY...
  STUART POWELL FIELD AIRPORT AND HEDGEVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3753 8474 3750 8504 3755 8512 3761 8504
      3765 8469 3764 8468 3765 8468 3765 8467
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 247DEG 5KT 3758 8483

JSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     FLOOD            LANCASTER               37.62N  84.58W
08/21/2013                   GARRARD            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO ROADS IN LANCASTER HAVE WATER OVER THEM

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300451

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
334 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 N STANFORD            37.59N  84.66W
08/21/2013  M2.00 INCH       LINCOLN            KY   MESONET

            THE KENTUCKY MESONET SITE NORTH OF STANFORD MEASURED 2
            INCHES IN ONE HOUR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1300452

JSD