Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Louisville, KY

264 
WGUS73 KLMK 061354
FFSLMK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
954 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

KYC005-073-167-239-061530-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-130706T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MERCER KY-WOODFORD KY-ANDERSON KY-FRANKLIN KY-
954 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM EDT FOR
FRANKLIN...ANDERSON...WOODFORD AND MERCER COUNTIES...

AT 948 AM EDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS AND BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED FLASH 
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HARRODSBURG...
  LAWRENCEBURG...
  VERSAILLES...
  FRANKFORT...

  IN ADDITION...FIRMANTOWN...CAPITAL CITY AIRPORT AND CLIFTON ARE
  INCLUDED IN THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING.

  FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN THIS WARNING...
  LOW LYING AREA WITH POOR DRAINAGE AT THE INTERSECTION OF MCCORMICK
  AND HAMMOND.
  LOW LYING AREA WITH POOR DRAINAGE AT INTERSECTION OF MAIN STREET
  AND COUNT STREET.

THE HARDEST HIT AREAS ARE INCLUDE LAWRENCEBURG...MILLVILLE IN 
NORTHWEST WOODFORD COUNTY...AND FRANKFORT...WHERE NUMEROUS ROADS ARE 
CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL RATES HAVE SLACKED 
OFF...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

REPORT FLOODING TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...POST YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET YOUR
REPORT USING HASHTAG L...M...K...SPOTTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 8479 3835 8474 3819 8473 3818 8465
      3813 8463 3785 8469 3783 8473 3774 8469
      3771 8475 3768 8502 3785 8500 3792 8512
      3789 8515 3799 8517 3807 8505 3834 8497
      3834 8499 3837 8491 3837 8490

$$

RAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
638 AM EDT SAT JUL 06 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2013

...Widespread soaking rains expected to continue through much of the
morning hours...gradually working east towards the Bluegrass and
Lake Cumberland regions by mid morning...

Water vapor imagery shows an ideal and highly unusual (for July)
synoptic setup for widespread soaking rains. Early this morning a
deep sharp 500mb trough lay over Missouri. Central Kentucky and
Tennessee currently lie under the right entrance of a seasonally
strong meridional jet that extends northwards towards the eastern
Great Lakes. Upper level lift, combined with a fetch of tropical
moisture and a southerly low level jet, will lead to widespread
light rain with some embedded heavy tropical downpours through much
of the morning. Widespread one to two inch rains are expected
through early afternoon, with some localized totals approaching 3
inches where some of these heavier showers train over the same
location. Expect showers to become more scattered this afternoon,
but not completely diminish as this initial wave moves north into
Indiana.

Will continue our current flood watch which is due to expire Sunday
morning.

This trough axis will only slowly move east over the next day, and
is forecast to cross over southern Indiana Sunday afternoon. The
meso-ETA and much of the short range guidance forecast one final
round of heavy showers to develop late this evening or early Sunday.
It is looking more likely that this final round will move northeast
across the Lake Cumberland and the Bluegrass Region, as our highest
PWATs and the jet axis looks to set up along Interstate 75. Another
one to two inches are possible late Saturday and early Sunday along
or east of Interstate 75. By late Saturday, the position of the
500mb low will allow slightly drier air to penetrate into
southwestern Indiana and our western counties. Thus, these locations
will probably stay west of much tonight's expected precipitation.

Temperatures will stay cool again today with widespread cloud cover
and rain. Highs will stay in the mid to upper 70s along and east of
Interstate 65...with perhaps temperatures near 80 across
southwestern Indiana.

Expect partial clearing Sunday afternoon with scattered showers
moving east into eastern Kentucky during the morning or mid-day
hours. Highs will rise into the lower 80s.

More details of the hydrologic impacts can be found in the Hydrology
section below.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2013

The upper trof that has been dominating the forecast for so long
will finally lift northeast Sunday night and be out of the picture
by Monday.  A long east-west upper ridge will then set up across the
southern half of the U.S. with southern Indiana and central Kentucky
on the northern edge beneath zonal flow.  Late in the week a
weakness in the ridge will develop as a trof progresses across
southern Canada and the Great Lakes.

At the surface a quasi-stationary front will develop from the Plains
to the Great Lakes.  Over the first half of the week this front will
be held at bay by the Bermuda high building into the southeastern
United States.  Later in the week when the high weakens and the
Canadian trof comes in from the northwest the surface front should
be able to push southeastward into the LMK CWA.

Monday through Wednesday will be rather uncomfortable with highs in
the middle and upper 80s and dew points in the lower 70s.
Precipitable water amounts will be slightly elevated in the 1.5 to 2
inch range.  As such, scattered thunderstorm development can be
expected in the sultry afternoons and evenings.

Wednesday night through the end of the forecast the aforementioned
surface front will be pushing through the Ohio and maybe Tennessee
Valleys.  I tend to believe the slower ECMWF solution a little more
than the GFS given the stout high to our southeast, and
climatologically speaking fronts dropping southward into the Ohio
Valley in mid summer tend to not push through very quickly.  So,
PoPs will definitely be warranted for Thursday, and may need to be
increased for Friday if a slowing trend continues.

Highs in the middle and upper 80s can be expected this week.  Some
guidance is suggesting lower 90s, but with very green vegetation and
high humidity would prefer to not go quite that warm in the forecast
just yet.  Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s...possibly
mid 70s in urban Louisville especially Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2013

Widespread light rain and a few embedded heavier showers will
continue through much of the morning at all three TAF sites.

At SDF light rain with mostly VFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings
will continue through around 16z, after which rain will diminish and
any showers will become more scattered in nature. MVFR ceilings will
likely continue until at least 18z.

Light rain with some embedded heavier showers with MVFR ceilings and
occasional MVFR visibilities will continue at LEX and BWG through
18z. Showers will become more scattered after 18z.

Winds will stay from the south during the TAF period and generally
range from 5 to 9kts.

After 18z, mostly cloudy skies will continue, but ceilings will on
average rise above VFR thresholds. A second disturbance will bring
widespread showers back into the Bluegrass Region towards 06z
Sunday. Will put SHRA into the predominate group at LEX around 05z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2013

No changes to the current flood watch through Sunday morning.
Widespread one to two inch rain totals are expected by mid-afternoon
Saturday from this latest batch of tropical showers. Some locations
may receive up to 3 inches.  A lull in the precipitation is expected
during the day on Saturday...but another wave looks to push into the
Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions Saturday night and Sunday
bringing yet another round of 1-2 inch rainfall to area.  This
rainfall combined with what has already fallen over the last week
will lead to hydrologic problems across the region.

In general, we are facing two types of flooding issues.  The first
will be flash flooding due to thunderstorms, and then more
widespread flooding due to persistent rainfall expected through the
period.  Pretty much all the ingredients for a hydrologic event are
here.  We have precipitable waters up near 2 inches, nearly
complete saturation in the low-levels and a low shear profile.  This
will support low-centroid, highly efficient convection.  Latest
forecast guidance suggests a total of 2 to locally over 4 inches of
rainfall through Sunday morning.  Isolated amounts of 5-6 inches
will be possible...especially where the heavy rainfall axis sets up
or if cells train over the same areas.

Deterministic and ensemble QPF river forecast guidance suggests that
we will see flooding on the Licking River basin, Green River, and
the Rolling Fork River.  The Kentucky River basin looks to be able
to handle the current amount of QPF that is forecast, but I suspect
that if we see 5-6 inch rainfall in parts of the basin that we may
see flooding develop on that basin later this weekend.

Persons living near creeks, streams, and typical flood prone areas
should keep abreast of water levels and be prepared to take action
if water starts to rise or if warnings are issued.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ027>029-033>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

Short Term.......JSD
Long Term........13
Aviation.........JSD
Hydrology........JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
347 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>026-030>032-070800-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD
347 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013 /247 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT...A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS REGION MAY BRING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BRING PONDING ON
AREA ROADS AND FIELDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST RIGHT THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KYZ027>029-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-070800-
GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-
MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-
LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-
MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...
VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...
SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...
HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...
MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...
COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
347 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013 /247 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING FLOODING TO SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER FINAL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING YET ANOTHER ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAIN TO THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONS.
THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST RIGHT THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS AMOUNT OF
RAIN COMBINED WITH WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE LAST WEEK WILL
LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS IN AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

JSD/13