Winter Storm Warning 9, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
251 PM PST SUN DEC 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON
MONDAY THEN SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY COLD AIR WILL CHILL THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
MONDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH FRONT
PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW EVENING. HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES WITH
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
FGEN OF OVER 100 UNITS AND STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH 130 KNOT JET STREAK MOVES OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.
THIS WILL SUPPORT BANDS OF SNOW ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT MAINLY 2-4 INCHES IN VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST NORTHERN
ZONES...HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS ONLY EXPECT 2
INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL...BUT AN IBA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR THAT ZONE.

TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FGEN OF
OVER 100 UNITS WILL CONTINUE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
BEHIND COLD FRONT IN FAVORED AREAS EXPECT 4-7 INCHES IN VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL NEVADA. HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER WATCH FOR WHITE PINE
COUNTY...AND MAY ALSO HAVE TO ADD SOUTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA
COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER IN THOSE AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN
5 INCHES IN 12 HOURS. WILL DEFINITELY NEED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES EXCEPT FOR NORTHWEST NYE WHERE
SNOW WILL FALL DURING DAY ON TUESDAY AND EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS OF
ACCUMULATION. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH -14 TO -16 DEGREES CELSIUS COVERING NORTHERN NEVADA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AT THE SURFACE TO THE
20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER ON
WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW A BIT THUS
MORE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY AND WINTER STORM WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED...WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS RE- EVALUATE. DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH A FEW LINGER
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER AS A COLD TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ARISING CONCERNING THE TROUGH
EXTENSION OUT OVER THE PACIFIC BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAY SCOUR UP
SOME ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE. HISTORICALLY THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS THE COLDEST PATTERN FOR THE LKN CWFA. AN OPEN TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A
NE TILT ORIENTATION...OPENING UP TO A BROAD LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...PERIODICALLY OSCILLATING NEAR THE HUDSON
BAY. EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL CHANNEL THROUGH THE TROUGH AND INTO
NEVADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE INDICATING A NARROW RANGE
OF -16 C TO -22 C TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SINGLE DIGITS
WILL BE THE NORM AT NIGHT WITH DAYTIME LOWS STRUGGLING FOR THE
FREEZING MARK. LOWS WILL BE EXTREME WHERE RECENT SNOW HAS FALLEN AND
DAY BY DAY TEMPERATURE DEGRADATION IS POSSIBLE AS THERE IS AN
ABSENCE OF MIXING WINDS TO SUBLIMATE THE SNOW PACK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST LIKELY A DRY PERIOD
WITH THE COLDEST AIR INFLUX FROM A NORTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE LOW THAT HAS PROMISED TO BRING SUBSTANTIAL
SNOWFALL. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXITS EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE-ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER USING CAUTION SINCE THERE IS SOME
TIMING AND DEPTH DIFFERENCES ARISING WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE OPEN TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE GENEROUS WITH QPF
VALUES...EXTENDING THE SHORTWAVE DEEPER...THUS INFUSING SOME
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS SEEMS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS ECMWF MODEL RUN. THE GFS HINTED AT THIS ON THE 06Z
RUN BUT IS NOW BACKING OFF A BIT. CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS AND
RAISED POPS SOME...EMPHASIZING A NORTHERLY INTRUSION OF MOISTURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE-ZERO TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH
CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN
ELKO COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST MONDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

90/92/92

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