Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
202 AM PDT SUN APR 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AS UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY UPON THE APPROACH OF A
STRONGER SYSTEM. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
STORM SLOWLY MOVES FROM NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH CENTRAL NEVADA
PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING ALONG THE WAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH A MOIST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OF THE LKN CWFA THIS
MORNING...MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS IS THICKEST OVER NORTHERN NEVADA...
ESPECIALLY ELKO COUNTY...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THERE AREA SOME RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTHERN ELKO BUT CANNOT FIND
EVIDENCE OF ANYTHING DROPPING IN THE BUCKETS YET. TEMPERATURES
ARE LINGERING IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE
NORTH...HOWEVER ELY HAS AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW TEMPERATURE OF
FREEZING. PROJECTED MOVEMENT OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TODAY...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW
TONIGHT...AND DANGEROUSLY STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY EXIT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS MORNING. A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AND SHOWERS WILL
BE MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NEVADA. PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST TO NEAR THE WASHINGTON STATE SHORELINE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER TO BELOW 6000 FEET OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LKN CWFA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND
OVER WASHINGTON STATE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AND SPREADING
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 5500 TO
6000 FEET ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...STILL AROUND 8000 FEET SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWFA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
THE LOW 60S.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AND THE RUBY MOUNTAINS OF ELKO
COUNTY...4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ELKO...AND 6 TO
14 INCHES FOR THE RUBIES. A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ELKO
COUNTY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
EXPECTED ABOVE 5500 FEET. A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTH VERY RAPIDLY FROM WASHINGTON STATE...AND PLUNGE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO
THE VALLEY FLOORS. COMING OFF OF A RELATIVELY WARM DAY...ROAD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING INITIALLY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 30
DEGREES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND FROM THE RUBY MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD. SNOW WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST HOWEVER
WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING. A POST-
FRONTAL STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE CUTS
DEEPER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND ARIZONA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IMMENSELY OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 100 MPH AT MOUNTAIN PEAKS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
40S WITH GUSTS WELL OVER 55 MPH AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA AS WRAPAROUND EFFECTS CONTINUE FROM THE SLOW-EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBDUED OVER EASTERN NEVADA
AS WELL WITH A CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WIND GUSTS IN SOME
PLACES TUESDAY COULD PEAK HIGHER THAN 45 MPH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA FOR THE LONG TERM. PLEASANTLY MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENJOYED...WITH BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE EARLY APRIL NORMALS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LARGE COLD TROUGH SLOWLY INCHES AWAY FROM THE GREAT
BASIN. SINKING AIR PROMOTES DRY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
FREEZE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S. MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NEVADA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS...IT COULD BE COLDER IF
SKIES ARE CLEARER...BUT CURRENTLY IT APPEARS SOME CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST AND KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN THEY OTHERWISE COULD
BE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE BACK TO THE 60S IN MOST
VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEVADA EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. ALL
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT TRACKING THIS FEATURE. THIS SHORTWAVE
APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED. NONETHELESS...MODEL
QPF FIELDS REQUIRED INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS FOR
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS NOW MENTIONED ACROSS MOST OF NE NEVADA. 00Z
ECMWF IS MOST ROBUST WITH ITS QPF...WITH 0.10-0.20 INCH OF RAIN FOR
NE NEVADA VALLEYS. ALL PRECIPITATION THAT POPULATED VALLEYS RECEIVE
WILL BE RAIN WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 8000 FEET. WARMING TREND IS
HALTED...BUT IT WILL STILL BE MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY UNEVENTFUL NW FLOW. CONTINUED MILD WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. BT

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS TODAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ORGANIZES NORTH OF NEVADA. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AFTER 18Z...KWMC/KEKO WILL
BOTH AVERAGE 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS. WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA...AVERAGING 15-25 KTS AT KTPH/KELY.
-SHRA LARGELY CONFINED NORTH OF KWMC/KEKO THROUGH 00Z...BUT DID
MENTION VCSH AT KWMC/KEKO. INSTABILITY WARRANTS VCTS/CB MENTION AT
KEKO 00-06Z.

AN INTENSE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ALL TAF SITES 06-18Z MON.
EXPECT 1-3 HOURS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS IN SHSN AS THIS COLD FRONT
PASSES. CURRENT TIMELINE PLACES WORST CONDITIONS AT KWMC 06-12Z
MON...AT KEKO 08-14Z MON...AT KELY 12-18Z MON. KTPH CAN EXPECT BRIEF
-SHSN AS WELL 12-18Z MON. HIGHEST IMPACT AT KTPH WILL BE STRONG
/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING/ NW WINDS 15Z MON-00Z TUE...AVERAGING NEAR
40 KTS...GUSTING OVER 60 KTS. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PDT
MONDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

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