Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
254 AM PDT THU JUL 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND MAINLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE NIGHT
WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES IN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. STORMS AGAIN PRODUCED A GOOD NUMBER OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ALSO OUTFLOW WINDS. AS OF RIGHT
NOW...ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE WITH A
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. FURTHER
NORTHWEST...A TROUGH IS PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO ABOUT 0.75 TO 0.90 INCHES. MODELS ARE
DEPICTING THE BEST CAPE VALUES OF 600-1000 J/KG TO BE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA AND HUMBOLDT COUNTY. ALSO...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A 250MB JET ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR IS A TAD WEAKER OVER NORTHERN NEVADA THAN SEEN IN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. EVEN SO...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BE QUITE
STRONG AND LONG-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. THE CAPE PROFILE IS FAIRLY THIN...BUT DCAPE VALUES WILL
TYPICALLY BE IN THE 600-1200 J/KG RANGE...AND SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 60 MPH IS DEFINITELY THERE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS AFTERNOON CONCERNS FIRE WEATHER...WHICH
WILL BE COVERED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.

LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH DEBRIS CLOUD...SO KEPT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM
DIPPING TOO FAR.

FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A REPEAT OF THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC TROUGH MAKING FURTHER INROADS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE UPPER JET AT 250 MB MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST WITH ITS
EFFECTS STILL SEEN OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
SHOWING SLIGHTLY MORE CAPE...BOTH IN MAGNITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHEAR IS ALSO STRONGER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AT ABOUT 25-35 KNOTS...AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING QUITE FAST AS
WELL...ABOUT 10-20 MPH...WHICH WILL ADD TO ANY OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS...AND ARE EXPECTEDTO BE AS HIGH AS 55-60 MPH PER WINDEX
FORECASTS. THEREFORE...FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ORGANIZED STORMS...EVEN MORE SO THAN
THURSDAY. THIS SITUATION BEARS CLOSE WATCHING FOR RESIDENTS IN THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. NOT TOO MANY
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS KEEP AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS. HAVE KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO MAYBE
SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY IMPACT OPERATIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE
IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL ZONES TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH
DRAPED ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DECREASE
SLIGHTLY VERSUS YESTERDAY TO ABOUT 0.75 TO 0.90 INCHES. A
FAVORABLE UPPER JET ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY WILL HELP
PRODUCE SCATTERED...BUT MAINLY DRY...THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEVADA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG
WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FRIDAY AS THE PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE MUCH. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY MORE ENHANCED DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CAPE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVER BETWEEN 0.80 AND
0.95 INCHES BUT STORM SPEEDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO 10-20 MPH. ONCE
AGAIN...IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHTNING...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS STATIONED SOME WHERE
NEAR THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

86/86/90/86

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
300 AM PDT THU JUL 4 2013

NVZ030-031-033>041-051000-
HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY-
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-WHITE PINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-
300 AM PDT THU JUL 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...NORTHEAST NEVADA...NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL COMBINE
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 60 MPH...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. BLOWING DUST MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH COULD LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO
ONE MILE OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A REPEAT PERFORMANCE IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND LONG-LIVED. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WEATHER PHENOMENA ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
217 PM PDT THU JUL 4 2013

NVZ037-041-042200-
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY NV-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY NV-
217 PM PDT THU JUL 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN EUREKA AND
NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM PDT...

AT 212 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 29 MILES WEST OF DUCKWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

EXPECT STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO IMPACT THE WILLOW CREEK FIRE FROM 230
PM TO 300 PM. A WIND GUST UP TO 50 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL NORTHERN NYE COUNTY...
  RURAL SOUTHEASTERN EUREKA COUNTY...

&&

LAT...LON 3919 11594 3893 11569 3876 11630 3898 11641
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 235DEG 35KT 3891 11622

91