Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
352 PM PDT WED AUG 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AND WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SILVER STATE TOMORROW. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
SHORT BURSTS OF PRECIPITATION AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE BATTLE BORN STATE TONIGHT. THE PWS FROM
THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM ELKO WERE 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND AT RENO
THE PWS WAS 169 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM12 HAVE
POCKETS OF PWS OVER AN INCH OVER THE REGION. THE NAM12 ALSO PINGS
INTO NEGATIVE LI'S AND ENHANCED CAPES. BASICALLY THE ENVIRONMENT
IS RIPE FOR CONVECTION. FOR TOMORROW...THE MODELS SHOW A DRYING
TREND OVER CENTRAL NV WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVING IN. HOWEVER...HANG ONTO MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES...KEPT POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF 1-80 FOR
TOMORROW...AND THEN OVER THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE...AGAIN...IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS OUT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONE SORT OF SURPRISE IS THAT THE EC HAD A TROPICAL LOW
MAGICALLY APPEARING OFF THE BAJA COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD...AND
IMPLIED THAT SOME WEAK MONSOON FLOW MIGHT OCCUR INTO EASTERN NEVADA.

THEN SUDDENLY THE GFS GOT ON BOARD AND AGREED BUT THEN THE TWO
MODELS DECIDED THAT THE MONSOON FLOW WOULD GO GANGBUSTERS AND MAKE
THIS WEEK LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE.

UP UNTIL THEN...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALI COAST FINALLY
WEAKENS...OPENS TO A WAVE...AND PROCEEDS NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY...THE FLOW STARTS TO TAP THAT TROPICAL LOW AND BY
TUESDAY...PW'S ARE IN FULL MIGRATION MODE INTO NEVADA. THE GFS...THE
MODEL OF CHOICE LATELY...PUTS VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25" IN...GET
THIS...NORTHERN NEVADA. WITH ANY KIND OF WEAK LOWER LIFT AND UPPER
SUPPORT...WE MIGHT HAVE A FLOOD SITUATION IN THE MAKING. AT ANY
RATE...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED POPS FOR NEXT WEEK AND MADE ALL
CONVECTION IN THE GRIDS APPEAR AS WET.

TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT SINCE THIS IS SO FAR OUT YET
HAVE LARGELY LEFT THE MAXES AND MINS ALONE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE EARLY ON...SIGNIFICANT TIGHTENING OF THE
GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OVER A
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT NEED TO WATCH THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING VFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT AT KELY WHERE IT MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO HIGH MVFR. PERIODS OF AT
LEAST VCTS AND PERHAPS TEMPO TSRA WILL OCCUR AT KELY AND KEKO. LESS
LIKELY AT KTPH AND EVEN LESS LIKELY AT KWMC. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL
OCCUR WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS
45 KNOTS. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH THESE VERY WET STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RADAR HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON...
MULTIPLE SWAS AND ONE SVR ISSUED. EXPECTING MORE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA TOMORROW. *WETTING RAINS*
POSSIBLE BUT NOT GUARANTEED...NEW STARTS POSSIBLE TODAY. GUSTY
OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

97/98/98/97

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
318 AM PDT WED AUG 21 2013

NVZ030-031-033>041-220845-
HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY-
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-WHITE PINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-
318 AM PDT WED AUG 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...NORTHEAST NEVADA...NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING A CONCERN. DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NEVADA LATER ON THURSDAY...BUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. MAIN THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. BY FRIDAY...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA DRIES OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WEATHER PHENOMENA ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

94

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