Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS NEVADA TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS ORGANIZING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE YET ANOTHER CROP
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS GETTING UNDERWAY. 12Z NAM AND THE
3KM-HRRR BOTH SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA /WHITE PINE, NYE, SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA
COUNTIES/ THROUGH THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS
PERCOLATING CUMULUS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEVADA, WITH
SPC MESOANALYSIS REVEALING LIFTED INDEX TO -5 AND CAPE TO
1500 J/KG, AND THAT'S ONLY AS OF NOON. EXTRA MOISTURE IN THE AIR
SEEMS TO BE SLOWING HEATING SOMEWHAT, AND SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT IS
NOT HELPING EITHER. BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING NONETHELESS. WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH 11 PM, WHERE THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS
WILL BE LOCATED. 3KM HRRR FORECASTS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. KEPT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MUCH
HIGHER TONIGHT THAN IS TYPICAL, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.
WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 11 PM FOR NOW, BUT
CONFIDENT THE CONVECTION WILL NOT END THEN, SO THE EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO DETERMINE WHETHER TO EXTEND THE WATCH THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE INCREASING DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND WITH GFS/NAM BOTH FORECASTING
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION IS LIKELY. FURTHER AIDING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
ADVERTISED WEAK SHORTWAVE, ROTATING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA
IN THE MOIST MONSOON FLOW, AND APPROACHING ELKO COUNTY AROUND 5 AM
MONDAY. THIS IS THE MOST STABLE TIME OF DAY /THE CONVECTIVE
MINIMUM/ BUT DESPITE THIS, EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SURVIVE
THE NIGHT.

WITH THE CLOUDS, RAIN, AND RAPIDLY INCREASING HUMIDITY LOW
TEMPERATURES LABOR DAY MORNING WILL BE VERY MILD AND WAY ABOVE
NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. SOME RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE LIKELY, ELKO'S RECORD FOR SEP 2ND IS 59 SET IN 1960. MY
FORECASTED LOW IS 61 DEGREES.

LABOR DAY...CLOUDY AND MOIST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER, RANGING FROM 1-1.2 INCHES.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MONDAY WILL PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE QUESTION IS, WILL THERE BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP MONDAY? THE ANSWER FROM MANY MODELS,
THE 12/18Z NAM, 12Z GFS AND ECMWF IS A UNANIMOUS YES. ALL GUIDANCE
ALLOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EVEN ALL THE WAY INTO
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. SOME FORECASTER CONCERNS REGARDING THIS SCENARIO:
1) THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL HELP TRIGGER STORMS TONIGHT IS COMING
THROUGH NE NEVADA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, NOT A GREAT TIME
TO GET STORMS GOING. IN FACT, SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE
AND THE SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY HINDER THUNDERSTORM
GROWTH MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND 2) WE ARE GOING TO BE VERY MOIST.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY ALL DAY, AND IT MAY PROVE
DIFFICULT TO GET THE SUNSHINE NEEDED FOR NEW STORM INITIATION.
DESPITE THESE CONCERNS, FORECASTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL ZONES MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES,
WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY, BUT THIS WILL
REQUIRE CAREFUL WATCHING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY
ACTIVITIES. FOR NOW, SORT OF TOOK A MIDDLE GROUND AND MENTIONED
HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS FOR NE NEVADA. AGAIN, WITH NEAR RECORD PW
IN THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

NOT THE BEST FORECAST FOR LABOR DAY PLANS, BUT DOUBT MANY WILL
COMPLAIN AS THE NEVADA DROUGHT CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSTABLE. PW REMAINS VERY HEALTHY,
RANGING FROM 0.80-1.2 INCH. 12Z GFS FORECASTS WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDICES AT 5 PM TUESDAY, SO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN
THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. TURNER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY
WELL WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CWA IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE "MONSOON" MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...HOWEVER UPPER TROF PUSHES INLAND SHOVING THE TSTM
ACTIVITY TO EASTERN NV ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY TROF WEAKENS OVER
THE CWA AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AGAIN THE
TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN NV. BY
SATURDAY INSTABILITY IS PUSHED INTO WHITE PINE COUNTY AS TROF
MOVES TO THE NORTH OF NEVADA. THEN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS NEXT
SUNDAY AS FOUR CORNER HIGH GETS SUPPRESSED. JH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL TERMINALS. KWMC AND KEKO WILL SEE PERIODIC SMOKY
CONDITIONS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE SURFACE VSBY. KEKO WILL
ALSO HAVE VCTS THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. KTPH AND KELY MAY
HAVE -TSRA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. KELY MAY SEE HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES. JH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE LIGHTNING WILL BE PLENTIFUL, WETTING RAINS
AND MUCH HIGHER RH WILL MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR NEW LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS. RETURNING MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH HIGHER
MAX/MIN RH AND GREAT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

99/87/87/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
356 AM PDT SUN SEP 1 2013

NVZ030-031-033>041-021100-
HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY-
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-WHITE PINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-
356 AM PDT SUN SEP 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...NORTHEAST NEVADA...NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN EUREKA AND SOUTHERN
LANDER...WHITE PINE...AND ALL OF NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES. LARGE
AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND PRODUCE EXTREME
RAIN RATES OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN RAINED ON RECENTLY.
KNOW WHERE YOU ARE AT ALL TIMES...WATCH YOUR SURROUNDINGS. IN
RUGGED TERRAIN SUCH AS WE LIVE IN...MANY FLOODS OCCUR IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS FROM STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. YOU MAY NOT EVEN SEE OR
HEAR THE STORM...ONLY THE WATER RUSHING DOWN AT YOU.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WHILE NO FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT ON MONDAY...ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES NORTH. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY MAY BE STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL.

SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND LESSEN THE CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WEATHER PHENOMENA ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE. NEVER PUT YOURSELF IN DANGER.

BOYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
412 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ELY                     39.25N 114.88W
09/01/2013                   WHITE PINE         NV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS 1 FOOT DEEP WATER ACROSS
            CENTER STREET IN ELY. STILL RAINING VERY HARD.

&&

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
415 PM PDT SUN SEP 1 2013

NVZ037-040-012345-
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY NV-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY NV-
415 PM PDT SUN SEP 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LANDER AND
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM PDT...

AT 411 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTHWEST
OF GABBS TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF GABBS TO 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF MINA...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   GABBS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 11771 3871 11797 3875 11798 3901 11819
      3910 11779 3915 11780 3889 11759 3854 11752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 246DEG 16KT 3906 11809 3879 11787
          3853 11782

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
501 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ELY                     39.25N 114.88W
09/01/2013  M1.03 INCH       WHITE PINE         NV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.03 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...PRODUCING MINOR
            STREET FLOODING. WATER STILL FLOWING IN STREETS.

&&

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
506 PM PDT SUN SEP 1 2013

NVZ037-020030-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-
506 PM PDT SUN SEP 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LANDER
COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM PDT...

AT 504 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLD SPRINGS...OR 22 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NEW PASS SUMMIT...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CARROL SUMMIT...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3918 11778 3922 11773 3935 11777 3935 11756
      3917 11756 3917 11778
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 270DEG 2KT 3926 11768

JRM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
621 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             8 E TONOPAH             38.07N 117.08W
09/01/2013  M0.50 INCH       NYE                NV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER ESTIMATED HALF INCH SIZED
            HAIL...BUT NO OFFICIAL MEASUREMENT.

&&

JRM