Blizzard Watch 1, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PST MON JAN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A SHORT BREAK OF DRY WEATHER THIS MORNING...SNOW
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON THE WAY TO NORTHERN NEVADA...

A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN AS TROUGH
AXIS CLEARS THE UT/NV LINE THIS MORNING. SINKING AIR BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE IS ERODING THE CLOUDS ACROSS NEVADA THIS MORNING
WITH WINNEMUCCA REPORTING CLEAR SKIES. THIS TREND WILL NOT LAST
LONG WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKENING AND LOWERING ACROSS NW NEVADA
THIS MORNING. EXPECTING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND OVERRUNNING TO KICK
INTO FULL GEAR BY 4 PM...WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND SNOW REDEVELOPING
PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

TONIGHT...SNOW AND WIND BOTH INCREASE AS STRONG JET STREAM ENERGY
DIVES INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. LIFT WILL BE INTENSE THROUGH A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG OMEGA CORRELATED WITH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AS SHOWN BY 00Z GFS CROSS SECTIONS OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA. WIDESPREAD SNOW PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED AND RAISED
SNOW COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS TO 100% FOR MUCH OF ELKO AND NE
HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME TONIGHT AS
700 MB WINDS REACH 50-60 KTS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
AVERAGE 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...WITH MUCH HIGHER
GUSTS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH BLOWING SNOW INCREASING BY
TUESDAY'S MORNING COMMUTE.

TUESDAY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL ADVERSELY AFFECT THE MORNING
COMMUTE. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL OVERLAP THE
STRONGEST WIND ENERGY. GFS HAS BEEN AMAZINGLY CONSISTENT
FORECASTING THIS EVENT...AND THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS QPF OF .90 INCH
AT WILDHORSE WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER AVERAGE WIND OF 27 KTS TUESDAY.
USING AT LEAST A 15:1 FLUFFY SNOW RATIO...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
FAVORED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY WILL RECEIVE OVER A FOOT
OF SNOW. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON NW-FACING SLOPES. FOR ZONE 031...THE
SNOW ALONE WOULD CLEARLY SUPPORT A WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUANCE.
THE WINDS ARE THE GAME CHANGER. 00Z GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR
WILDHORSE REVEAL 45 KTS OF WIND AT 1000 FT TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS FALLING. THUS OPTED TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH
FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY 4 PM MONDAY - 4 PM TUESDAY. TRAVEL IS
HIGHLY DISCOURAGED...ESPECIALLY ON U.S. HIGHWAY 93...AND MAY BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO
COUNTY...ALSO FROM 4 PM TODAY THROUGH 4 PM TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE AS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...MODELS CRANK OUT ROBUST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE ZONES OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL FAVOR NW-FACING SLOPES /SUCH AS SPRING CREEK/. ELKO IS NOT
FAVORED IN NW FLOW...EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS HERE OF 4-5 INCHES.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND AREAS OF DRASTICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY.

WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST
HUMBOLDT RANGE WHICH LOOK TO BE CLOBBERED IN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.
PROLONGED NW FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAXIMIZE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. PLACED ONE TO TWO FEET IN THE SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS.
THIS COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING...TRAVEL INTO THE RUBIES THROUGH TUESDAY IS NOT ADVISED.

REGARDING HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES...A MORE
DIFFICULT CALL TO MAKE HERE. CLEARLY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
OCCUR IN THESE ZONES...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS FAVORING THE NE
PORTIONS OF THE ZONES. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS...AROUND
3-6 INCHES...BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE ACTUALLY STRONGER. FELT IT WAS
PRUDENT TO PLACE THESE ZONES IN A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW AND
LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE IF THEY REQUIRE A WARNING...OR MORE
LIKELY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW.

FOR THE REMAINING ZONES...ZONE 033 /WEST WENDOVER/ IS STRONGLY
UNFAVORED IN NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO EXCLUDED THAT ZONE FROM WATCH.
NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR NORTHERN NYE. COULD CONCEIVABLY
NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW FROM EUREKA
TO ELY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOR 1-3 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACTS
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50.

SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES TUESDAY EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELKO COUNTY
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH NO IMPACTS.  TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A
HIGH-AMPLITUDE PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED
APPROXIMATELY 600 MILES WEST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO ACCOMPLISH
AXIS RELOCATION THROUGH NEVADA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF
DEPARTS SOLUTION THEREAFTER FROM THE OTHER MODELS...PREFERRING TO
DEVELOP A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH THAT COULD HALT THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN OF PRIMARILY RIDGING WILL
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE NEVADA WHERE
A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES COULD SKIP THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND AND SNOW TO
ALL OF THE GREAT BASIN. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO CENTRAL NEVADA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KEKO.

KEKO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH 22Z MONDAY. VLIFR VIS AND
CIG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

KWMC. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

KELY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

KTPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

99/92/92

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