Freeze Warning 3, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
328 AM CDT MON MAR 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG WINTER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH BOTH THE MID LVL LOW AND SFC LOW NOW OVER THE OH VALLEY. NW
FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE SFC AS
MENTIONED EARLIER THE SFC LOW IS OVER OH WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...BREEZY DAY(MAINLY AFTN) AND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE WHERE KNEW CONTINUES TO GUST TO 35-40 MPH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER ALL OF THE AREA WITH STRONG WINDS
STILL JUST ABV THE SFC AND THIS HAS HELPED TO KEEP THINGS MIXED WITH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S BY 8Z.

THE FCST WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET THROUGH WED AND MAINLY BE A TEMP
ISSUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH NW
FLOW BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS THE L/W TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPS. VERY DRY AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH RATHER COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO MULTIPLE SITES DROPPING TO OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. ONE
PROBLEM TONIGHT WILL STILL BE WINDS IN THE LL AS THE CNTR OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NW. THIS WILL KEEP RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS FROM BEING OPTIMAL AND THUS MAY KEEP TEMPS RIGHT
AT OR JUST ABV FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS
RIGHT OVER THE REGION. DUE TO THIS WILL HOLD OFF ANY FREEZE WARNING
AT THIS TIME AND ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO GET ONE MORE LOOK AT IT TO
DECIDE WHAT AREAS MAY NEED ONE TONIGHT. OVERALL THE NEXT 3 DAYS
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ONE OTHER SMALL CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FIRE WEATHER. WITH VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS LEADING TO RH VALUES AT OR JUST BELOW 25% OVER COASTAL MS
AND WINDS OF 15-17MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WE WILL BE ISSUING A RED
FLAG WARNING THE OUR 4 MS COUNTIES EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. THE PATTERN
REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH A L/W TROUGH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND A
RIDGE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN
NW FLOW THROUGH THE FCST. RAIN CHANCES DO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC PUSHES EAST OVER
THE ERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNING...HOWEVER THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF TILL NEXT WEEK AS A S/W APPROACHES THE REGION. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL ROUGHLY BE OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE
AS CONDITIONS WELL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST OBS GENERALLY
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE AREA WIDE. MODELS
SUGGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AS COLD FRONT
MARCHES EVEN FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE CARRIBEAN. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN SOME. THOUGH THEY MAY FALL BELOW ADVISORY
SPEEDS...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS
ANOTHER IMPULSE SWINGS AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST. SO WILL KEEP ADVISORY UP THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS WILL WEAKEN
WINDS OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND TO MORE OF THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SO WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THERE
AND NOW HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AS CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
FINALLY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR NOW HAVE SCA
EXPIRING AT 12Z TUESDAY. MAY NEED TO EXTEND INTO MID MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST. THIS RATE WILL BE SUCH THAT IT WILL
NOT REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT WIND DIRECTION TO FOLLOW THIS AND SHIFT WINDS FROM NW TO
NE  MIDWEEK AND FINALLY SE AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN FOCUS ON THE TAFS WILL BE WINDS AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. MAJORITY OF
TERMINALS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ARE EXPERIENCING THE LUXURY OF A
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONG
GUSTY ONES AGAIN TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. EXPECT
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH LOWER TO MID 20 KNOT GUST. WINDS WILL
RELAX AT SUNSET TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MSY AND NEW ARE A DIFFERENT
STORY WINDS COMING ACROSS THE LAKE HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED AND WILL
DO SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             RED FLAG WARNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  29  54  29 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  60  31  57  33 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  59  31  57  30 /   0  10  10   0
MSY  56  39  55  39 /   0  10  10   0
GPT  59  33  56  34 /   0  10  10   0
PQL  59  32  57  29 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...AND PEARL
     RIVER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: MEFFER

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