Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1131 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. WIND SHIFT HAS
MOVED THROUGH KBTR AND KMCB...AND MOST CONVECTION IS NO LONGER
SURFACE BASED. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF 40 KNOT GUSTS FROM ALL
TERMINALS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR OR
VFR. FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND
WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF SUNDAY TO TRAVERSE THE REMAINING PORTION
OF OUR TERMINALS. HAVE NOTED THAT AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED BEHIND
THE FRONT HAVE FOGGED IN...WHICH COULD BE A CONCERN TOMORROW NIGHT
IF THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL NOT MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013/

UPDATE...

HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA AS WINDS HAVE
DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING DUE TO LESS OVERALL DAYTIME
HEATING MIXING DOWN THE STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH THIS EVENING...BUT
THIS IS WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA...AND CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES FOR THIS EVENING...AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  40  53 /  80  50  20  10
BTR  61  75  43  56 /  80  50  20  10
ASD  66  75  47  59 /  80  60  30  10
MSY  65  77  49  58 /  80  60  30  10
GPT  67  75  49  61 /  80  60  30  10
PQL  68  76  51  61 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1152 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-221800-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1152 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS...AS WELL AS CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS. SOUTH WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FRONT AND PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

MSZ080-081-221045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2013

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING HANCOCK
COUNTY...HARRISON COUNTY...

AT 357 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WAVELAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...BAY ST. LOUIS...KILN...DIAMONDHEAD...LYMAN AND SAUCIER

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.