Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

..DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ATMOSPHERE RIPE FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS TO BEGIN
WITH VFR...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE BRIEF DIPS TO MVFR CONDITIONS
ALL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LFT SITE HAS CONVECTION OCCURRING
NOW...AND THE REST WILL FOLLOW DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. TAF SITES
BPT & LCH COULD SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AND VAIABLES
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25KTS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALSO A VERY LIKELY
POSSIBILITY IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING COMING IN WITH A WHOPPING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 2.41 INCHES...TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
NORM. WHILE MAIN CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS WITH LOW LEVEL TROF
MOVING ONSHORE OF EAST TEXAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW FIRING OVER THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE BOTH INLAND AND OVER THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO EAST
LOUISIANA ON THE WEST SIDE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. STILL HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO ANTICIPATE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION. WITH HIGH
TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES...STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE HIGH-END RAINFALL RATES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
NO UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SKIRTING THE SWRN LA/SERN TX COASTLINE...ASSOCIATED
WITH PASSING WAVE OVER THE N-CNTL/NWRN GULF. THIS CONVECTION WILL
BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE SRN SITES TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT
KLCH/KBPT WHERE PREVAILING SHOWERS/TEMPO THUNDER HAS BEEN INSERTED
FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY COME
TO AN END WITH SUNSET ALTHOUGH VCSH HAS BEEN RETAINED INTO THE
EVENING AT THE SWRN SITES WHERE LIFT FROM THE WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME LOSS OF HEATING.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MUGGY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN EASTERLY WAVE THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE...MAINLY OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.

SOME AREAS WILL GET MUCH NEED RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TOMORROW. MOST OF THE AREA WE ARE FORECASTING A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS TODAY...HOWEVER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...AVERAGE AMOUNTS COULD
BE UP IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS IS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

PRETTY MUCH RINSE AND REPEAT ON SUNDAY AS TUTT LOW PROPAGATES WEST
TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECASTING THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO
BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS WELL ON SUNDAY WITH ONE HALF
TO NEAR ONE INCH AMOUNTS CURRENTLY FORECAST. BETTER THAN AVERAGE
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY
RAIN FREE DAY AS THE ABOVE FEATURES WEAKEN AND A SHOT OF DRIER AIR
MOVES OVER.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
AMPLIFIED EAST COAST TROF SENDS A BONAFIDE COOL FRONT INTO THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND PERHAPS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. DID
TRIM TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT ACROSS...MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES
FOR FRIDAY.

HOPEFULLY WE GET THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN THAT WE EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

MARINE...
A EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
MAINLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  76  91  76  92 /  50  20  50  20  50
KBPT  92  76  91  75  92 /  60  20  50  20  40
KAEX  94  74  93  73  93 /  40  10  40  10  40
KLFT  92  76  90  76  91 /  50  10  50  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
429 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
110930-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
429 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE THE RISK IS VERY LOW...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SOME
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER...MAINLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-110930-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
429 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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