Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1110 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONT JUST S OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS SE TX/S LA THIS
EVENING. FIRST WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND N OF
THE FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA...AFFECT
ARA/LFT. SECOND WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS SE TX FROM HOU TO LFK WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE TX/SW LA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWERING MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
THE SHRA/TSRA INCREASES IN COVERAGE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH
INTERMITTENT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WED...ENDING FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013/

DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS PRETTY MUCH SAY IT ALL THIS EVENING. ONE CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE ALOFT NOTED CROSSING SERN
TX/MIDDLE TX COAST ATTM...WHILE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION IS SEEN
DEVELOPING ALONG/BEHIND SFC TROF ANALYZED ALONG THE NWRN GULF
COAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80 CURRENTLY IN EFFECT JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...LUCKILY THE SQUALL LINE WHICH IS LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WATCH BOX IS HEADED TOWARD THE GULF...PLUS
CURRENT SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK KEEPS SLIGHT RISK AREA TO OUR WEST AS
WELL. THEREFORE GIVEN CURRENT/FORECAST TRAJECTORIES OF ONGOING
CONVECTION AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF SEVERE WEATHER...EXPECTING
JUST A RAINY/SOMETIMES STORMY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. REMAINDER OF
GRIDS/ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE AS INHERITED.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WARM FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THE SE TX/LA COAST...WITH SHRA EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT LOWERING MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ACROSS
BPT/LCH...AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS AS THE
FRONT ADVANCES N AND SHRA/ISO TSRA INCREASES IN COVERAGE. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH INTERMITTENT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WED AS THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NR THE
NEV/COLO BORDER WITH DISTURBANCES EMANATING EASTWARD ACRS TX.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACRS PORTIONS
OF CNTL TX THIS AFTN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES HAVE RECENTLY
BEEN ISSUED ACRS PORTIONS OF THAT AREA...UP TO OUR WRN BORDER.
CLOSER TO OUR AREA...KLCH RADAR DEPICTS JUST SOME ISOLATED LT RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS SWRN LA AND SE TX. A WEAK SFC FRONT EXTENDS NW TO SE
ACRS THE CWA...NR OR JUST NORTH OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN TO
PATTERSON. DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...AFTN
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPR LOW
MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE STORMS ACRS CNTL TX WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST...BUT THINK THAT ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT GETS
CLOSER TO OUR AREA. THE SFC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTH TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SFC LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF THE FRONT NR THE MIDDLE TX COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DECENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.5-1.7 INCHES. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACRS THE SRN ZONES AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS.

PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS AREA WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS NOW...AND MODELS
SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THAT THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH
OF OUR LAND ZONES WEDNESDAY...CROSSING THROUGH OUR FAR SERN
COASTAL WATERS ZONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE WARM SECTOR TO LIFT INLAND...LIMITING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND KEEPING HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE ERN
COASTAL WATERS. A LOOK AT FCST SOUNDINGS ACRS THE AREA SHOW DECENT
LOW LVL SHEAR...MAINLY OVER THE SERN ZONES...BUT ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY. THUS THINK THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE...WITH JUST ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ACRS S CNTL LA WEDNESDAY AFTN. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL END FM W TO E THURSDAY AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY...WITH
HUMIDITY GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND SLY WINDS DEVELOP. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LVL TROF DIGS INTO THE
SWRN STATES AND MOVES EAST.

MARINE...
A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND TRAVEL EAST OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH A STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA...WITH ACTIVITY ENDING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  68  54  68  48 /  90  80  50  30  10
KBPT  62  69  54  66  49 /  90  80  60  30  10
KAEX  57  66  50  64  44 /  80  80  70  50  10
KLFT  62  70  55  68  48 /  80  90  60  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
543 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
031115-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
543 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
ON WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF ON THURSDAY. MEAN AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS
...OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...WILL BE
RUNNING NEAR 2 INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-031115-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
543 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
ON WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF ON THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. RAIN WILL BE COMING TO AN
END ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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