Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Lake Charles, LA

850 
WWUS54 KLCH 300345
SVSLCH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

TXC457-300354-
/O.CAN.KLCH.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130130T0415Z/
TYLER TX-
945 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN TYLER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS LEFT THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3106 9457 3106 9452 3104 9447 3104 9444
      3100 9445 3103 9442 3103 9437 3099 9441
      3084 9463 3101 9465
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 238DEG 57KT 3121 9407

$$

TINGLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
857 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SFC OBS INDICATE THAT GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN AROUND 20 MPH FROM
I-10 SOUTH TO THE COAST...THEREFORE EXTENDED/RE-ISSUED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE
AREA...WILL CERTAINLY SEE CRITERIA WINDS IN CONVECTIVE GUSTS BUT
SUSTAINED GRADIENT WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 MPH SO ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON TIME.

LOCAL 88DS SHOW PLENTIFUL SHOWERS...WITH INCREASING THUNDER...
MOVING ACROSS CNTL LA. MEANWHILE REGIONAL 88DS SHOW NUMEROUS
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM NEAR KSHV TO KLFK TO KCXO. REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
ATMOSPHERE MORE THAN READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...SFC DEWPOINTS ABOVE 20C/COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH 800MB/
GOOD DRY SLOT ALOFT/VERY UNSTABLE/RIDICULOUS WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC/HELICITY VALUES A0A 400. ABOUT THE ONLY SAVING GRACE RIGHT NOW
IS THAT NEITHER THE KPOE/KLCH 88D VWP SHOWS MUCH LOW-LEVEL VEERING
ATTM...ALTHOUGH REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THIS VEERING IS CERTAINLY
ENOUGH FOR SOLID ROTATION WITHIN CELLS. THIS WAS A LOT OF TALK TO
BASICALLY SAY THAT INHERITED GRIDS/FORECASTS ARE IN GREAT SHAPE AS
IS AND NO CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED AS FAR AS POPS/WX.

ZONES WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY TO HEADLINE WIND ADVISORY. STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES SHOULD CONVECTIVE WATCHES BECOME A
REALITY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013/

AVIATION...IR IMAGERY SHOWING THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EAST
TEXAS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PROGGED YET AT A SWIFT 40 MPH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE ONGOING TAFS TO DELAY
THE PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TSTMS 04Z FOR BPT, 06Z FOR
AEX, 07Z FOR LCH, 08Z FOR LFT AND ARA. TEMPO LIFR WITH G35KTS
AROUND THESE TIMES.

THE ACTUAL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS BPT AT 08Z, LCH AT 10Z, AEX
AT 11Z, ARA AND LFT AT 12Z WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. GUSTY NW
WINDS BY MID-MORNING WITH THE DAY TIME MIXING WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. THERE COULD BE SOME FURTHER SLOWING OF THE SQALL LINE WHICH
WOULD MEAN AN ADDITIONAL ADUSTMENT MAKING US WAIT A BIT BUT TO BE
PRUDENT WENT WITH EXTRAPOLATION ANTICIPATION (IE CARLY SIMON).

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013/

SYNOPSIS...
THE BREAKDOWN IN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN FRONT TO TRAVEL THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FURTHER UP...A PROGRESSIVE LOW INDEX WAVE PATTERN DESCRIBES THE
CONFIGURATION OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...A TRAVELING UPSTREAM
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TEXAS...AND A TRAVELING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
MOVING TOWARD BERMUDA.

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

THE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDGE IS AS FOLLOWS:

A HORSESHOE HODOGRAPH (LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KNOTS) WILL BE
FOUND IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WEDGE. ITS ATTENDANT LIFT
WILL PHASE IN WITH THE LIFT ATTENDING A PACIFIC SOUTHWESTERLY JET
STREAK (THE ENTRANCE REGION). THE COMBINED LIFTS WILL BRING ABOUT
A NET VERTICAL DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDGE. ONGOING
ADVECTIVE MOISTENING WILL INCREASE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
AROUND 1.7 INCHES (WHICH IS OVER TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY).

THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
DYNAMIC INSTABILITY (NAMELY LOW LEVEL WARMING OF ABOUT 5 C DEGREES
IN 24 HOURS) WILL BE THE PRIMARY OVERTURNING MECHANISM. MIXED
LAYER CAPES (BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J PER KG) ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...DUE TO MODERATE SURFACE WINDS.

MARINE...
CARIBBEAN AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES...BEING STEERED NORTHWARD BY THE OUTER WARM-SIDE CIRCULATION
OF THE ATLANTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE (NOT MENTIONED ABOVE).

THIS RICH SUBTROPICAL AIR (WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S) CONTINUES
SLIDING OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL NEARSHORE WATERS (SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S). CONTACT COOLING WILL CHILL THE
OVERSLIDING CAMPECHE/CARIBBEAN AIR TO SATURATION.

SEA FOG MAY RETURN OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING
.QUICKLY MIXING OUT WITH PASSAGE OF CANADIAN FRONT.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  66  36  64  40 /  90  10  10   0   0
KBPT  52  67  34  66  38 /  80  10  10   0   0
KAEX  54  64  33  64  37 /  90  10  10   0   0
KLFT  61  68  38  62  40 /  90  20  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
     BAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
607 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
301215-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
607 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
DENSE SEA FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MAINLY COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS CAN BE
EXPECTED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM.

THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDMORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS STRENGTHENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
30 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

LASTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND
AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-301215-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
607 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND COASTAL WATERWAYS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. ADVISORIES FOR DENSE MARINE FOG
REMAIN IN EFFECT.

IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LASTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH STRONG WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND
AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.