Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
533 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN EXTREMES
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY
MORE STRATIFORM RAINS WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION. SFC OBS SHOW MVFR
CEILINGS ARE CONFINED TO THE ERN SITES WITH VFR CIGS FARTHER WEST.
THUNDER SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH RAIN
GRADUALLY DEPARTING A FEW HOURS BEHIND IT. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES
GOOD FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...FOR NOW HAVE
ONLY GONE SO LOW AS MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH LATER SHIFTS ALLOWED TO
BETTER REFINE THE FOG THREAT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013/

..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
..TORNADO WATCH 1 IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

DISCUSSION...A VERY SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH ACADIANA WITH AN UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIR MASS BEING FUNNELED IN FROM THE GULF. DEW POINTS IN LOW
TO MID 70S HAVE BEEN DRAWN IN AND STORMS ARE BECOMING SURFACE
BASED UTILIZING THE MOIST AIR AND MODEST SRH... THEREFORE A COUPLE
OF TOR WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED
LINE OF STORMS AND SPC HAS ISSUED A WATCH THAT WILL LINGER UNTIL
NOON. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE, HOWEVER
HIGH ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE A FEW ISOLD TORNADOES OVER
ACADIANA AND POINTS EAST THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS FLOODING GOES... THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING WILL EXIST
THROUGH THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER THE BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE OVER ACADIANA INTO CENTRAL LA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT AND HEAVY RAIN SLOWLY EXITS EAST. BACK TO THE SABINE
AND CALCASIEU RIVERS RAIN WILL MOSTLY REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE,
HOWEVER OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL OCCUR, AND WITH
SATURATED SOILS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PUSH THE AREA INTO A
FLOODING SITUATION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE WHOLE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY EXIT EAST WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AND
EJECT NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL INDUCE THE RETURN FLOW
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A CANADIAN AIR
MASS WILL SPILL BACK SOUTH WITH THE RESULTING COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH AS MULTIPLE FRONTAL WAVES TRAVEL ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY WITH OVERRUNNING POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK. BASICALLY A
VERY WET FORECAST WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

MARINE...A FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH SCA CRITERIA BEING MET AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
AREAS OF FOG ALSO EXIST WITH OCCASIONAL VIS DROPPING TO AROUND ONE
MILE. THE FRONT WILL EXIT BY NOON WITH RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WEST
TONIGHT, BUT INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  53  70  62  76 / 100  10  10  40  30
KBPT  70  51  72  61  74 /  80  10  10  40  30
KAEX  73  52  74  62  77 / 100  20  10  40  40
KLFT  77  59  74  62  77 / 100  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...
     ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...VERNON...WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...NORTHERN NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN NEWTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN
     JASPER...TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
609 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
111215-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
609 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
...TORNADO WATCH 1 IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE RISK OF FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BUT DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OCCURRING ACROSS ACADIANA THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS ACADIANA. ONGOING RIVER AND BAYOU
FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON FOR ACADIANA. A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AROUND
MID DAY WITH A DECREASING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES
ONCE THE LINE MOVES FARTHER EAST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. AREA
RIVERS AND BAYOUS WILL REMAIN HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD AND MORE
RAINFALL MAY KEEP CONCERNS ELEVATED FOR FLOODING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-111215-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
609 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.