Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Lake Charles, LA

243 
WWUS54 KLCH 311806
SVSLCH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
106 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

LAC079-115-311815-
/O.CON.KLCH.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-130331T1815Z/
RAPIDES LA-VERNON LA-
106 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR VERNON AND RAPIDES PARISHES...

AT 104 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PINEVILLE TO HINESTON TO 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BURR FERRY..MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CRAVENS...UNION HILL...FOREST HILL AND PITKIN BY 115 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3150 9268 3146 9270 3140 9266 3147 9229
      3144 9221 3106 9231 3095 9254 3091 9338
      3111 9354 3118 9353 3124 9356 3128 9354
      3128 9345 3137 9339 3135 9295 3152 9273
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 305DEG 43KT 3130 9241 3108 9276
          3101 9337

$$

24

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1049 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR THIS MORNING THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
TODAY IS TIMING THE MCS MOVING SEWD ACROSS NERN TX/NWRN LA. INITIAL
ESTIMATION TIMED THE LINE GETTING TO OUR NWRN ZONES BY 18Z WHICH
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...EITHER WAY MOVED UP
THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FOR THE AFTERNOON BY A FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS FASTER MOVEMENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LITTLE
CLOUD TOP WARMING THE PAST HALF-HOUR WHICH MAY BE A SIGN OF THE
SYSTEM WEAKENING BUT SEVERE MENTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH AT
LEAST 21Z WHEN THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
OTHER GRIDS/FORECASTS IN REASONABLY GOOD SHAPE AS IS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013/

UPDATE...

HAD TO ISSUE AN UPDATE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR DENSE
FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED. ALSO IN THE PROCESS ADJUSTED THUNDERSTORM
TIMING FOR TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE INFORMATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013/

SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH A COUPLE OF PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW NOTED
ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. WITH A COUPLE OF MCS'S CURRENTLY WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY IN THE
60S AREA WIDE. IN ADDITION SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME OF THIS IS DENSE IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHICH
IS NEAR THE BOUNDARY OF SOMEWHAT DRIER/COOLER AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA.

SHORT TERM...
FIRST OF ALL HAD TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

HI-RESOLUTION MESO-SCALE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT MCS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTH TO NEAR I-10 BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WITH THAT BEING THE BEST TIMING WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION SOME
CHANCES BY LATE MORNING AS WE CAN'T RULE SOMETHING OUT BEFORE THEN
WHEN LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUITE NICELY AHEAD OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION I AGREE WITH THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK AREA...AS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD GET INTENSE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND DID GO AHEAD AND MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
WANE SOME AFTER DARK...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHANCE THAT
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM...
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER MCS COULD GLANCE THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT GETS A LITTLE PUSH
TO THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE LOCATION...HOWEVER
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW STALLS IT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAY. WITH THE DELAYED TIMING HAD TO RAISE TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION A WET PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON TAP BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ON THE STALLED FRONT AND WILL
PRODUCE. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS LATE TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY AND NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES STEADY. CURRENTLY FORECASTING AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY FORECASTING
3 TO 4 INCHES OF AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...SOME OF WHICH IS MUCH NEEDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME SEA FOG TO DEVELOP
AT TIMES WITH WARM MOIST AIR BEING CHILLED BY THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAND. A FRONT WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND
MOVES TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  62  80  60  79 /  70  40  20  10  50
KBPT  79  62  81  61  76 /  60  30  20  10  50
KAEX  77  59  79  57  75 /  90  40  30  10  50
KLFT  78  62  80  60  80 /  70  50  30  10  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
525 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
011030-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
525 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM.
OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE DRY WEATHER LATELY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLOODING RAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-011030-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
525 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE ARE CURRENTLY
OCCURRING NEAR THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THE FOG MAY
BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.