River Flood Warning 37, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1147 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS, SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND HAS PUSHED BEYOND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND BPT,
LCH, AND SHORTLY LFT AND ARA. THERE WILL BE OVERRUNNING PRECIP
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND IFR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, IMPROVING
TO MVFR BY THIS EVENING. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST ON CLEARING
THINGS OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...OPTED TO GO WITH THE MORE PESIMISTIC
NAM/EURO SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. SO WILL GO VFR AFTER DARK AT AEX.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS CONTINUING
AS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...THANKS TO STRONG SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT COMBINING WITH SFC FRONT TO THE WEST AND COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD. LONE MOSTLY DRY AREA ATTM IS THE SERN
CORNER OF THE AREA BUT EWD PROPAGATION OF THE RAINFALL AS ASSOCIATED
FEATURES PROGRESS EWD WILL BRING THE DRY WEATHER TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT. INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES HAVE THIS EVENT COVERED WELL WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS AND FLOOD WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE...SO SEE NO
REASON TO MONKEY WITH ANYTHING SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED ATTM.

STAY DRY EVERYONE.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013/

AVIATION...GULF MOISTURE COMBINING WITH EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE
ALOFT FROM THE REMNANTS OF MANUAL WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT WILL
ALL COMBINE TO CONTINUE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS TNITE. MVFR WILL
RULE WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR TSTMS AROUND LCH AND LFT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...SHIFTING OVER TO AEX AND LFT TOWARDS MORNING.
CANNOT RULE OUT TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT BPT AND LCH ON
SATURDAY BUT WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF TSTMS FOR NOW AND
WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR AT LCH AND AEX. NORTH
WINDS WITH A SHALLOW FRONTAL SURFACE LATER ON SATURDAY WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO STREAM N ACROSS THE NW GULF
INTO SE TX/C AND S LA TODAY. BROADENING OUT TO THE BIGGER PICTURE
INCLUDES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS C TX NE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX. ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCLUDES SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES...INCLUDING
THE REMNANTS OF EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE MANUAL...COUPLED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PUT IT TOGETHER...AND
WE HAVE BEGUN THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT OVER THE REGION IN
OVER 4 MONTHS.

THUS FAR...LCH DUAL POL RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 2-4
INCHES ACROSS SE TX/W LA...WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING AMOUNTS OVER
5 INCHES ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND SW CALCASIEU INTO W CAMERON
PARISHES. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED OF LATE...MOST OF
THIS INITIAL RAINFALL IS RUNNING OFF INTO THE AREAS STREAMS/DITCHES
AND THE REMAINDER IS BEING ABSORBED.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SAT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARTIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS...IN WHICH A FRONTAL LOW/TROF IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OFF THE TX COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WITH THIS FEATURE...COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF OVER-RUNNING SHRA/ISO TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5-6
INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SE TX/C AND S LA THRU SUN MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST HAS LESS CONFIDENCE WITH THE ENDING
OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT. WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS NOW STALLING
THIS FRONTAL LOW OVER THE NW GULF THRU TUE...HAVE BUMPED UP THE
POPS MON INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY OVER SC LA WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS TO REMAIN.

DML

MARINE...
A PERSISTENT BUT MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING
ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS AND STALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  84  69  82  68 /  90  90  90  40  40
KBPT  75  83  70  84  69 /  90  90  80  40  30
KAEX  71  83  65  82  63 /  90  90  60  20  20
KLFT  73  84  70  81  68 /  90  90  90  50  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION...WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
551 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

GMZ430-432-435-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262-211100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-
BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-
SOUTHERN NEWTON-
551 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...RAINFALL WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BEAUMONT TO ALEXANDRIA
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT
FLOODING TO BE A PROBLEM GIVEN RECENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE IN AREAS OF
HIGH RAINFALL RATES AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT DUE TO WATER PILE-UP
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS. MINOR...MAINLY
NUISANCE...FLOODING WILL AFFECT SECONDARY ROADS AND LOW AREAS
NEAR COASTAL HIGHWAYS AS TIDES RUN FROM ONE TO ONE AND A HALF FEET
ABOVE NORMAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM SLOWS AND BECOMES STALLED OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN URBAN LOCATIONS AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS LOW SPOTS NEAR CREEKS AND BAYOUS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...INDIVIDUALS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND
FORECASTS REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-211100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
551 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AS MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST ALONG WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND 6
FEET.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD
TO WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY...THEN
BECOME MORE SCATTERED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
241 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2013

LAZ043-052-074-210830-
ACADIA LA-VERMILION LA-EAST CAMERON LA-
241 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACADIA...VERMILION AND CAMERON
PARISHES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

AT 240 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM GUEYDAN TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GRAND CHENIER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
EGAN...MIDLAND...MORSE...ESTHERWOOD...ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE RANGE...
ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE AND LYONS POINT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH...
WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

LAT...LON 2958 9267 2972 9302 3006 9269 3008 9263
      3013 9262 3031 9244 3024 9220 3020 9225
      3015 9227 3014 9226 3014 9220 3012 9213
      3012 9209 3010 9208 2956 9251

TINGLER

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>