Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
508 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA ABOUT SUNDOWN. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. A
PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE LOCATED FROM LUFKIN TO JASPER, IS EXPECTED
FURTHER DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS MORNING AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AROUND NOON. THIS SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
AS IT MOVES INTO ACADIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SQUALL
LINE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ESPECIALLY
FELT CLOSER TO THE COAST. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS WELL AS
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH LEVELS ARE DROPPING BELOW 3
FEET ABOVE MEAN LOW WATER WITH THE OUTGOING TIDE, THE NEXT HIGH
TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AGAIN BRING TIDES CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH 4 FOOT SEAS WASHING OVER. SO THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...SINCE THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING TONIGHT, ADDED
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE WEEKEND IS
LOOKING GOOD WITH RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TUESDAY UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 40S IN ITS WAKE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS FOR THE COASTAL LAKES
AND BAYS TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
INTERIOS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED ASSUMING THE SQUALL LINE HOLDS TOGETHER AND
HEAVY RAINS BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA, AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAINS END
TONIGHT. RADAR ESTIMATES OF RAIN UP TO 5 INCHES ALREADY HAVE
OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITHIN THE
FLOOD WATCH. RIVERS WILL LIKELY SEE RISES HOWVER NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE HIGH WATER IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  61  75  54  71 /  90  60  10   0   0
KBPT  79  60  77  55  70 /  90  50  10   0   0
KAEX  77  57  74  50  72 / 100  40  10   0   0
KLFT  82  66  76  54  72 /  80  70  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...RAPIDES...VERNON.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
     MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...SOUTHERN
     JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
532 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-011045-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
532 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY A SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ABOUT SUNDOWN AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
LOWER ACADIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AROUND 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT AREA EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
THERE IS ADEQUATE SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL AREA EXTENDING INTO BEAUMONT, ORANGE,
AND LAFAYETTE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT INCLUDING THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING INTO THE THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP STARTING ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED WITH THE SQUALL LINE.

SWEENEY