Severe Thunderstorm Warning 383, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
601 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS NCNTL NEB AT 20Z WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST PRODUCING SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THIS WAVE COULD EXIT THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA BY 22Z...PERHAPS AROUND 02Z IN THE SOUTH. THEREAFTER NORTH
WINDS TAKE HOLD AND SWEEP INSTABILITY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST
AREA. SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS INCREASING BENEATH THE
DISTURBANCE AND LOCATE THE MOISTURE PLUME EAST OF THE MODEL POSITION
SO A FASTER EXIT IS POSSIBLE. NONETHELESS...ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 IN THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CONDITIONAL. BASED
ON SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA...STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...BUT SHEAR
COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. DEEP MOISTURE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ALOFT WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT MULTICELL BEHAVIOR AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ALL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA BY 06Z-09Z WITH
CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER. THE MODELS THEN PULL HIGH
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MT...THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH
WILL PRODUCE BACK DOOR COOLING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS COOLEST
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND MID
TO NEAR UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
HOT DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE RETURNS...THE WARM AIR ALOFT RETURNS AS WELL AND VERTICAL
MOTION OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CAPPED AS INDICATED WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES -5C OR WARMER.

A FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES
STALLED THERE WITH ONLY SMALL OSCILLATIONS SOUTH AND BACK TO THE
NORTH. THE RESULT OF THAT IS LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND
PERSISTENT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FCST AT KVTN. ELSEWHERE...FROM ROUGHLY KOGA-KANW AND
EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.
DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED...NO THUNDERSTORMS FCST AT KLBF THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY GUST TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS
EVENING...THEN UP TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1159 AM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-011700-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
1159 AM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013 /1059 AM MDT SAT AUG 31 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. AT THIS
TIME...LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST HIGHWAY 281...HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS
FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 61. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 FROM BASSETT TO SARGENT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

CDC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
545 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

NEZ069-312345-
CHASE NE-
445 PM MDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHASE COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
MDT...

AT 441 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAMAR...OR 18 MILES WEST OF IMPERIAL...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CHASE AROUND 520 PM MDT.
CHAMPION...WANAMAKER STATE WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT AREA AND IMPERIAL
AROUND 545 PM MDT.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 53.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPRINGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
829 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

NEZ026-010215-
BLAINE NE-
829 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLAINE COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 824 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF DUNNING...OR 11 MILES WEST OF
BREWSTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BREWSTER...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

ROBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
833 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

NEZ059-010200-
LINCOLN NE-
833 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL 900
PM CDT...

AT 829 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RINGGOLD...OR 14 MILES
SOUTH OF TRYON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 89 AND 99.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 97 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 17.

MASEK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
852 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

NEZ059-010230-
LINCOLN NE-
852 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL
930 PM CDT...

AT 848 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF WALLACE...OR 22 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF NORTH PLATTE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DICKENS...
  SOMERSET...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 60 AND 61.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

MASEK