Severe Thunderstorm Warning 329, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
638 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

ABBREVIATED FORECAST DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AMPLE INSTABILITY WORKS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH VARIOUS BOUNDARIES AND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR. AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE A CONCERN AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY INVOF ANY BOUNDARY WHERE LOW WIND PROFILES ARE
VEERING /NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION/.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN...WITH PWATS ALREADY ABOVE
1.50" ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...QUICK STORM MOTION MAY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...AND AGAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

30 POPS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO BECOME
CENTERED IN FAR NW KANSAS EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NW INTO NWRN NEBR AND A WARM FRONT ALONG
INTERSTATE 80. STORM SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES AND SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. FAVORED THE NAM AND ECMWF WHICH KEEP CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR POPS WHILE THE GFS KEEP SATURDAY MAINLY DRY
WITH LOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...A SEMI STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN
JUST SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF AREA. A FLATTENED RIDGE TO OUR WEST
WILL BRING A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH DAILY CHANCES REACHING 30 TO 40 PERCENT. THE GFS/ECMWF AND
GEM MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS. WITH PROXIMITY OF SURFACE
FRONT AND ENHANCED POPS...TEMPERATURES TO RANGE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES OUTSIDE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE DROPPING OVERNIGHT IN THE KVTN
TERMINAL FOR MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...KECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
409 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-022115-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
409 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013 /309 PM MDT THU AUG 1 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
QUICKLY AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ALSO ISOLATED TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS AGAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY IN
CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.

AFTER FRIDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT CONTINUES STALLED ON
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

KAR

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
634 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     18 S HAY SPRINGS        42.42N 102.69W
08/01/2013  E60 MPH          SHERIDAN           NE   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL ALSO OCCURRING AT THE LOCATION.

&&

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
641 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             29 N WHITMAN            42.46N 101.54W
08/01/2013  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
648 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

NEZ027>029-020030-
GARFIELD NE-LOUP NE-WHEELER NE-
648 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WHEELER...EASTERN LOUP
AND GARFIELD COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 644 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CHAMBERS TO CALAMUS RESERVOIR STATE RECREATION AREA...AND MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BARTLETT...
  ERICSON...
  HOMESTEAD KNOLLS CAMPGROUND...
  VIRGINIA SMITH DAM...
  DEVERRE...
  GABLES...
  BUFFALO FLATS...
  FOUR CORNERS...
  CUMMINSVILLE...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

JACOBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
649 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

NEZ010-020030-
HOLT NE-
649 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HOLT COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM
CDT...

AT 649 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ATKINSON...OR 19 MILES WEST OF ONEILL...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ONEILL...
  EMMET...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 278 AND 311.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

JACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
653 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             26 N WHITMAN            42.42N 101.54W
08/01/2013  E1.75 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            WINDS GUSTED TO 60-70 MPH. TREE BRANCHES DOWN AND WINDOWS
            BUSTED OUT ON HOUSE.

&&

MARTIN