Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS PROGRESS FURTHER
EAST...TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH THE UPPER LOW
INTO CANADA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HAS PUSHED THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER IT HAS SLOWLY RETURNED
NORTHWARD THE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE
90S...NORTH IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT IS EXPECTED. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING...AND WILL BE ONE OF THE FOCAL POINTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE A SECOND FOCUS
POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF THE LL JET. MANY AREAS LAST
NIGHT SAW ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO 1.50 INCHES...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCALIZED REPORTS OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES WERE RECEIVED. EXPECTATION
IS FOR SIMILAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...HOWEVER IF ANY TRAINING DEVELOPS
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

BY MORNING THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AND/OR PUSHING EAST.
WILL ALSO SEE THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HIGH LEVEL SMOKE WHICH WILL
BRING FOR ANOTHER YELLOWISH TINT TO THE SUNRISE. THE BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL CREATE
SOME DIFFICULTY FOR TOMORROWS CONVECTIVE FORECAST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THE
BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEBRASKA FROM NORTHEAST TO TO SOUTHWEST WILL
AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY EVENING.
STORMS INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL TRACK ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ENERGY AT OR ABOVE 3000J/KG...STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ROTATION. THE MEAN WIND
OVER THE STORM DEPTH IS LIKELY TO BE PRETTY LOW...SO HEAVY RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS. DEEP SHEAR OF 40-50KT IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS.

WITH HIGH THETA-E CONTINUING OVER NEBRASKA MONDAY ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. ON TUESDAY...DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE HIGH THETA-E OVER TO IOWA AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA LEAVING A BREAK IN THE STORMY PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FOCUSED ON THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM...ALSO EXPECT A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. HAVE TRIED TO TIME MOST LIKELY IMPACT TIME
INTO THE TAF...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY MORNING.
STILL HAVE SW FLOW ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME SMOKE OVERHEAD
IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
405 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-232115-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
405 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013 /305 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LINGERS INTO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A SEMI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.

ON TUESDAY A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST TO BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPS
OVER THE WESTERN ROCKIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

MASEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1101 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 PM     TSTM WND GST     MULLEN                  42.04N 101.04W
06/22/2013  E60 MPH          HOOKER             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1112 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 E NORTH PLATTE        41.13N 100.70W
06/22/2013  M67.00 MPH       LINCOLN            NE   ASOS

            WIND GUST OF 67 MPH RECORDED BY THE NORTH PLATTE AIRPORT
            ASOS.

&&

ROBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MULLEN                  42.04N 101.04W
06/22/2013                   HOOKER             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT. MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN
            MULLEN.

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1125 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S THEDFORD            41.96N 100.57W
06/22/2013  M60 MPH          THOMAS             NE   ASOS

            WIND GUST OF 60 MPH MEASURED BY THE THOMAS COUNTY AIRPORT
            ASOS.

&&

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1143 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 SW CALLAWAY           41.21N 100.03W
06/22/2013  M58 MPH          CUSTER             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST MEASURED AT 58 MPH.

&&

ROBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1154 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 PM     TSTM WND GST     BROKEN BOW              41.41N 99.64W
06/22/2013  M54 MPH          CUSTER             NE   ASOS

&&

SJACOBS