Small Craft Advisory 94, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 PM AST TUE JUL 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS RAIN BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL MOVES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILED TODAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WERE NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN PUERTO
RICO WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS TROPICAL
STORM CHANTAL MOVES CLOSER TO OUR LOCAL AREA. AT 200 PM AST...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST. CHANTAL IS MOVING RAPIDLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 29 MPH. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH CHANTAL WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE INTO THE
U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT. THESE SQUALLS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 60 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS OVER SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO. THIS RAINFALL COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL MOVES AWAY ON WEDNESDAY...WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS AIR MASS COMBINED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT EACH
DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE AS TUTT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS TS CHANTAL
APPROACHES THE LOCAL TERMINALS. AFTER AROUND 09/20Z...APPROACHING
TS CHANTAL WILL CAUSE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
AND WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 45 KTS OR HIGHER...
STARTING WITH TKPK/TNCM AND THEN TISX/TIST. THEREAFTER...SHRA AND
VCSH WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DETERIORATE AS TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL MOVES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR MARINE SECTION OF OUR LOCAL PAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  87  78  87 / 100 100  20  20
STT  79  81  81  91 / 100  90  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-EASTERN INTERIOR-
     MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     SOUTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM AST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-
     MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CULEBRA-VIEQUES.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM AST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
     ISLANDS.

COASTAL WATERS...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN
     USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM.

&&

AC/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
127 PM AST TUE JUL 9 2013

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-101730-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
127 PM AST TUE JUL 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA. PLEASE MONITOR
TROPICAL PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE OR
FLOODING WILL BE APPRECIATED.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-101730-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
127 PM AST TUE JUL 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
TROPICAL PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE OR FLOODING WILL BE APPRECIATED.