Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS JSJ

984 
WGCA72 TJSJ 091226
FFSSJU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
826 AM AST THU MAY 9 2013

PRC119-091232-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130509T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RIO GRANDE PR-
826 AM AST THU MAY 9 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR RIO GRANDE
MUNICIPALITY...

ALTHOUGH THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED...THE RIVER AND STREAM FLOW 
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS RIO GRANDE. AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY 
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 1030 AM AST. ANY ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL MAY CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. 
PLEASE MONITOR THE NWS FOR ANY UPDATE ON THIS SITUATION.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED 
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO 
HIGHER GROUND.



LAT...LON 1843 6587 1840 6577 1830 6577 1829 6586

$$

AAS/DS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST THU MAY 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAJORITY OF
THIS ACTIVITY REMAINED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH SOME SHOWERS
NOTED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE
GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO INCHES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO DUE TO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC WHICH IS PROVIDED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...
MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SLOPES...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. DUE TO ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS...PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING AND RISES IN SMALL STREAMS
AND RIVERS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN ON
MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IF ITS AXIS MOVES RAPIDLY...THE DAY COULD
TURN OUT FAIRLY DECENT...BUT IF NOT...IT COULD BE ANOTHER ACTIVE
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR DURING MORNING XCP MVFR/ISOLD IFR IN SCT SHRA TJSJ/
TIST/TNCM. NMRS SHRA/SCT TSRA IN AFT NORTH PR/ST THOMAS/ST MARTIN WI
MTN OBSC...ISOLD/SCT FARTHER SOUTH. LLVL WIND BLO FL100 E 10-20 KT
BCMG SE TONITE. WIND WSW WI INCR SPD ABV FL100. LITTLE CHG FRI.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT WIND WAVES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGTHLY DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD ESPECIALLY OVER
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  86  75 /  70  40  40  30
STT  86  75  86  76 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

54/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST THU MAY 9 2013

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-100945-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
540 AM AST THU MAY 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. BUT SATURATED SOILS AND
REDEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
AGAIN RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING...RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND
RIVERS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN. THIS WILL MOST NOTICABLE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE ISLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...REPORTS ABOUT FLOODING WOULD BE
APPRECIATED.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-100945-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
540 AM AST THU MAY 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.