Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
701 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE FIRED UP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO
DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...WITH MANY REPORTS OF WINDS OF 60
MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS ALSO A NEW CELL THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT COULD
BRUSH NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY IN THE NEXT 20 TO 30 MINUTES. THIS
CONVECTION HAS THE BETTER DYNAMICS TO SUSTAIN IT AS IT MARCHES
EAST...SO WOULD EXPECT THIS TO HOLD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL. THE MAIN
LINE OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM.

THE OTHER LINE OF CONVECTION IS ALIGNED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
BACK DOWN INTO NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...SUSTAINED BY A NOSE OF MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. IR SATELLITE HAS BEEN SHOWING A
TREND OF WARMING TOPS AS THESE HAVE GOTTEN EAST AND NORTHEAST AND THE
LATEST NAM12 SHOWS THE CAPE DIMINISHING AS THE LINE PUSHES FURTHER
EAST INTO OUR AREA...SO IT MAY BE THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

THE PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING EASTERN
KENTUCKY MOST OF THE DAY IS FINALLY STARTING TO SHIFT EAST...WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THANKS TO A
MORE INTENSE EMBEDDED BAND OF SHOWERS THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH A
CORRIDOR ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WEST LIBERTY TO IRVINE...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED AN INCH IN PLACES.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WRAPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN
ILLINOIS DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI. A BROKEN LINE OF
DISCRETE CELLS AS WELL AS BOW STRUCTURES ARE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF
IT. ALSO SEEING LOTS OF 40+ KT GUSTS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS A GIVEN LOCATION OUT WEST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY AROUND 9PM OR SO...AND
THEN LOOKS TO BARREL THROUGH BY 12 OR 1 AM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
LOW LCL/S AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE BIGGER
THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64...HOWEVER WITH SUCH STRONG
WINDS AT 850 MB...GENERALLY 60-65 KTS...AND VERTICALLY STACKED
THETA-E SURFACES STILL ADVERTISED ALONG AND BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL LIKELY GUST ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WITHOUT THE AID OF CONVECTION. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SHOULD TOTAL LESS THAN A HALF INCH GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST AND WEST
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES WORKING IN QUICKLY. LOWS
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL DROP BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
DOWN TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

DESPITE THE SEEMING MODEL CONVERGENCE AGAINST A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
YESTERDAY...THEY HAVE NOW LEAPT UPON THE IDEA WITH RENEWED VIGOR.
THIS JUMP AND LACK OF CONSISTENCY AMONG THE RUNS SUGGEST THAT
CONFIDENCE NEEDS TO BE KEPT LOW FOR ANY DETAILS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
THEY DO START OUT THE EXTENDED IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN LOCALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP TROUGH
THAT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. RISING HEIGHTS WILL
COMMENCE OVER KENTUCKY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SLIGHT RIDGING
PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME UNCONSOLIDATED ENERGY WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS BEFORE LIFTING PAST TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED TROUGH IS CUTTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF ITS ENERGY POOLING WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST...DOWN NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAN COAST. THERE IS
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT THIS
ENERGY WILL WRAP UP INTO A CLOSED LOW BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS ESTABLISHES
SPLIT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OVER THE REST OF THE NATION AND SHOULD ALSO
KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY TO THE WEST OF KENTUCKY. EVEN WITH THE
WESTERN CLOSED LOW AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF DIVING A TROUGH THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND SENDING HEIGHTS
DOWN THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF IS MORE
SUBDUED WITH THIS WAITING UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY TO BRING ITS LOWER
HEIGHTS TO OUR AREA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN THESE PATTERN
CHANGES WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LIKELY NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM
THE CR INIT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DRY AND MODERATING PERIOD TO START
THE EXTENDED WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE
REGION. THE NEXT DOME OF ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO MOVE SOUTH AND
DEEPER INTO THE CONUS ON THURSDAY SETTING UP A TIGHT BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH AHEAD OF
THIS...ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGH...AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RETURN SHOWERS INTO OUR EAST KENTUCKY WITH
COLD AIR LIKELY LURKING NOT FAR OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. A WET PATTERN
ENSUES FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOISTURE AND A
SLOWLY SAGGING ARCTIC BOUNDARY MEET UP OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO SAG THE FRONT INTO KENTUCKY LATER
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD TRANSITION ANY LINGERING
PCPN TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY WHEN CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE WOULD BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. FOR NOW...WILL JUST
INTRODUCE A TOUCH OF SNOW INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND HOLD WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR TIMING THIS FRONT THROUGH. THE
CAVEAT REMAINS THAT THE MODELS NEED TO SHOW SOME STABILITY WITH THIS
PATTERN BEFORE THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST RATES A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
LEVEL.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN PRETTY GOOD WITH POPS AND SKY COVER GIVEN
THE BLEND PREFERENCE SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THESE GRIDS.
AGAIN DID ADD IN SOME SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BETWEEN 01 AND 04Z. MVFR CEILINGS
AS WELL AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KTS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 04 AND 07Z...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

MESOSCALE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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