Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
105 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013

ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 557
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 6 AM EDT. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH NO DETECTED
LIGHTNING...ALTHOUGH HAVING THE RADAR APPEARANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
WIND GUST IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH RATHER RAPIDLY EAST TO
THE WV BORDER BY 4 AM EDT. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE
BLUEGRASS REGION AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA TO BE UNDER THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DOWNING TREES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE ARE SOME KINKS WITHING THIS LINE
AND GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR A STRAY WEAK SPIN UP IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRIDS WILL UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT OBS SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

DID ANOTHER UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE
THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. USED THIS LINE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST WINDS AND BEST THUNDER CHANCES. ALSO TWEAKED
THE T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS SLICING
EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST...NOW APPROACHING WESTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THIS...THE WEAKER PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE BREAKING UP...CLEARING THE
WAY FOR MORE BANDED CLUSTERS AND EVEN SOME LINEAR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT...HIGH SHEAR AND PASSING 850 MB JET AT 75+ KTS...
THESE HAVE THE DISTINCT POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DOWN DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS AND A SMALL THREAT OF SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS HOW THESE STORMS EVOLVE TO OUR WEST AND MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE
THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND WINDS
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY FROM 04 TO 08Z. HAVE SET UP THE LATEST
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS AND READJUSTED THE WIND/GUST GRIDS TO BETTER
FOCUS ON THIS POTENTIAL LINE. FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE
ADJUSTED THEM TOWARD THE LATEST CONSSHORT EXPECTING THEM TO STAY UP
UNTIL THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND RAIN APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE
ALSO UPDATED THE NPW TO REFLECT THESE LATEST THOUGHTS WITH A ZFP AND
HWO UPDATE TO FOLLOW. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

DEEPENING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALIGNED
SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI. A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...HAS ALLOWED FOR
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
RANGING IN THE 30 TO 40 MILE PER HOUR RANGE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PLOWING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINS...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AVAILABLE NOT FAR OFF
THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN ANY BETTER BANDS OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
FRONT PULLS AWAY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LOW TO MID
40S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FAIRLY SHARP AND
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELL TO
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER THE TQ INDEX...WAS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT THUNDER. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GRAUPEL WITH
THESE SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRY PERIOD
UNTIL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE MODELS START TO DIFFER
SOME ON SPEED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE FRONT WILL
MOST LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME VCSH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH...A
BETTER AND MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO AND SLOWLY THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY. THIS BAND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST VIS IN
HEAVIER RAIN WITH A VCTS AND CB INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS SHOULD END TOWARD 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST LEAVING BEHIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOWER CLOUDS SUBSEQUENTLY BREAK UP AND WINDS SETTLE
FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE AVIATION
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
845 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-020345-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
845 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH
IT STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REACH THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000
FEET BORDERING VIRGINIA. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY HIGH WIND GUSTS...TREES BLOWN DOWN...
OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

GEOGERIAN/GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1232 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013

KYZ050-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-106-108-111-112-114-010545-
MENIFEE-MONTGOMERY-POWELL-ESTILL-MCCREARY-PULASKI-ROCKCASTLE-WAYNE-
WHITLEY-LAUREL-JACKSON-MORGAN-OWSLEY-WOLFE-LEE-BREATHITT-
1232 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013

...A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH
145 AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING...

   JACKSON...
   MCCREARY...
   MENIFEE...
   MONTGOMERY...
   MORGAN...
   WESTERN OWSLEY...
   POWELL...
   PULASKI...
   ROCKCASTLE...
   WAYNE...
   NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY...
   WOLFE...
   LEE...
   NORTHWESTERN BREATHITT...
   ESTILL AND
   LAUREL.

AT 1223 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A BROAD LINE OF SHOWERS
CONTAINING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 2 AM. THIS AREA IS MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED
TO...STANTON...IRVINE...MCKEE...MOUNT VERNON...SOMERSET...AND
MONTICELLO GENERALLY FROM 1245 AND 115 AM. FURTHER EAST...THROUGH 2
AM...FRENCHBURG...CAMPTON...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...LONDON AND
WHITLEY CITY WILL BE AFFECTED.

RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF NEAR
50 MPH IN THESE AREAS.

THE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1235 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW WEST LIBERTY       37.89N 83.29W
11/01/2013  M49.00 MPH       MORGAN             KY   MESONET

&&

JMWIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1256 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FRAKES                  36.64N 83.93W
10/31/2013                   BELL               KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES WERE REPORED DOWN AND ONE FELL ON A HOME.

1245 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG VIPER                   37.18N 83.15W
11/01/2013                   PERRY              KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES WERE RERPORTED DOWN.

&&

JP

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