Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
224 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

WARM AND MOIST AIR PUSHING INTO ERN KY FROM CNTRL TENN...COUPLED WITH
A 25H JET AND WE HAVE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE. LATEST RADAR
LOOP INDICATING A STORM IN MONGOMERY COUNTY BUILDING INTO STRONG
CATEGORY. WILL NEED TO KEEP ON EYE ON THE RADAR FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AREA OF PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE AFTER SUNSET WITHOUT THE
ADDED LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SUN. AREA OF PCPN WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE
EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING.
LESSER COVERAGE OF PCPN TONIGHT WITH LACK OF ADDITIONAL DAY TIME
HEAT. THEN COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH PCPN
INCREASING FROM N TO S AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REGION WITH CLEARING BEHIND
THE FRONT BY FRI AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S...MUCH LIKE TODAY...IN SPITE OF THE INFLUX OF THE SRLY
FLOW THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER
60S AS HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE BNDRY LAYER WILL KEEP DEW POINTS
RELATIVELY HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TROUGHS OFF THE EAST AND WEST COASTS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN KY. THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE
FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WITH
EASTERN KY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH WE WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE AFFECTS ANY SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. THERE
IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OR IMPACTS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES...SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE STANDARD BLENDED MODEL LOAD AND
CONSENSUS FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

PRECIPTATION GINING WIDER COVERAGE ACROSS ERN KY AS THE WARM MOIST
AIR IN TENN MOVES INTO THE REGION. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECTING NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF TEMPO IFR AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MOVEMENT IS QUICK ENOUGH THAT ANY REDUCTION IN VSBY/CIG
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW MINUTES. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE IS
SPARSE EVEN AS THE SHOWER COVERAGE IS NUMEROUS...SO JUST HAVE VCTS IN
THE TAF.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-222230-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
325 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DUSTY/SBH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

KYZ050-051-211830-
MONTGOMERY-BATH-
205 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 230
PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

   MONTGOMERY AND
   WESTERN BATH.

AT 206 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PREWITT...OR
NEAR MOUNT STERLING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...MOUNT STERLING
AROUND 220 PM EDT...CAMARGO AROUND 225 PM EDT...GATEWOODS STATION
AROUND 230 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

DUSTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

KYZ050-051-059-060-106-211930-
MENIFEE-MONTGOMERY-POWELL-BATH-MORGAN-
230 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 330
PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

   MENIFEE...
   SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...
   NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...
   NORTHERN POWELL AND
   SOUTHEASTERN BATH.

AT 230 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BEAN...OR 6
MILES NORTH OF STANTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...MEANS AROUND
235 PM EDT...CEDAR GROVES AROUND 240 PM EDT...CORNWELL AROUND 245 PM
EDT...ROTHWELL AROUND 250 PM EDT...AND TABOR AROUND 255 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATE OF TWO
INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

KYZ059-060-106-108-111-211930-
MENIFEE-POWELL-MORGAN-WOLFE-LEE-
300 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

   EASTERN MENIFEE...
   SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...
   SOUTHEASTERN POWELL...
   WOLFE AND
   NORTHERN LEE.

AT 259 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KICKED OFF A POTENT GUST
FRONT LOCATED FROM A LINE EXTENDING FROM DENNISTON TO LEECO...OR
EXTENDING FROM FRENCHBURG TO 8 MILES WEST OF CAMPTON...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...ARTVILLE AROUND
305 PM EDT...EBON AROUND 310 PM EDT...ARNETT AROUND 315 PM EDT...OMER
AROUND 320 PM EDT...AND NEW CUMMER AROUND 325 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN THESE AREAS.

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
306 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             1 E FRENCHBURG          37.95N 83.60W
08/21/2013  E0.25 INCH       MENIFEE            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JCARICO

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