Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Jackson, KY

July 17, 2013Bell County, Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 17, 2013, 4:23 PM EDT for Bell County, Kentucky. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 17, 2013, 4:23 PM EDT (20:23 UTC)
Expired
Jul 17, 2013, 5:00 PM EDT
In force
37 min
Issued by
NWS Jackson, KY
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.0 in
Wind
60.0 mph

County Bell County, KY

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 300 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2013-07-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2860 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2013-07-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 7 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2860 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-16 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
861 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-11 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 17, 4:00 PM EDT, 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 17, 4:00 PM EDT, 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

THE TRADEWINDS HAVE SET UP OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH WIND FLOW
CARRYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
AREA TODAY. THIS WAS OCCURING DUE TO AN EXTREMELY STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER INDIANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED IN THE
TROPICAL AIR MASS...AND WERE HANDLED FAIRLY WELL IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT BY THE NAM.

HAVE USED THE NAM FOR PRECIP TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM. IN TERMS OF
FEATURES...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTION...WITH A
PREFERENCE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE WEAK...MEANING
CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN BE PULSY AND SLOW MOVING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG UPPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA...SOLIDIFYING A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...WHICH SHOULD THEN PERSIST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...
WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK.
STILL...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...THE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SULTRY...AND HEAT INDICES WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE
MID 90S.

BY SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KY SUNDAY...BUT
WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS KY OR NORTHERN TN INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH APPROACH OF THE FRONT...THE THREAT FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. WHILE OVERALL RAIN
PROBABILITIES SHOULD THEN DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT TAF ISSUANCE...WITH DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. A STORM HAS ALREADY HIT KJKL AND
STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE...LIKELY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOMETHING
AT KLOZ OR KSME...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. WILL LOOK FOR A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND DYING OUT
THIS EVENING. VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIKELY AVOID TAF SITES AGAIN. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS AND FOG WILL BRING LOCALIZED IFR. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SBH/GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 17, 5:15 AM EDT, 11 hours 8 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
515 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-181215-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
515 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY AGAIN TODAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE.

THE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES REACHING THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

GREIF

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 17, 2:59 PM EDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

KYZ106-109-171930-
MAGOFFIN-MORGAN-
259 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 330
PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

   NORTHWESTERN MAGOFFIN AND
   EASTERN MORGAN.

AT 258 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JEPTHA...OR 9
MILES EAST OF WEST LIBERTY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...ORIENT AROUND
305 PM EDT...FLORRESS AROUND 310 PM EDT...WHITE OAK AROUND 315 PM
EDT...WELL STATION AROUND 320 PM EDT...LEWIS AROUND 325 PM EDT...

PEOPLE IN THESE AREA CAN EXPECT BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH...INTENSE LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

HAL
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 3:10 PM EDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
310 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

KYZ115-117-171945-
LESLIE-PERRY-
310 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 345
PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

   LESLIE AND
   CENTRAL PERRY.

AT 309 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STINNETT...OR
NEAR HYDEN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...ASHER AROUND
315 PM EDT...ESSIE AROUND 320 PM EDT...CREEKVILLE AROUND 330 PM
EDT...WARBRANCH AROUND 335 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

JMW
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 3:22 PM EDT, 1 hour 1 minute before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
322 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

KYZ109-110-113-171945-
KNOTT-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-
322 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 345
PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

   NORTHERN KNOTT...
   EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MAGOFFIN AND
   WEST CENTRAL FLOYD.

AT 321 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BETTY...OR 11
MILES NORTHEAST OF HINDMAN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...MOUSIE AROUND
330 PM EDT...LARKSLANE AROUND 335 PM EDT...GARNER AROUND 340 PM
EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

JMW
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 3:51 PM EDT, 32 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

KYZ080-086-172030-
LAUREL-KNOX-
351 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 430
PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

   KNOX AND
   SOUTHEASTERN LAUREL.

AT 351 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HAVEN...OR 10
MILES SOUTH OF MANCHESTER...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...CRANES NEST
AROUND 400 PM EDT...JARVIS AROUND 405 PM EDT...YEAGER AROUND 410 PM
EDT...GARRICH AROUND 415 PM EDT...ARKLE AROUND 420 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

JACOBSON
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 3:59 PM EDT, 24 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

KYZ113-115-117-118-172030-
KNOTT-LESLIE-LETCHER-PERRY-
359 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 430 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHWESTERN KNOTT...
   EAST CENTRAL LESLIE...
   WEST CENTRAL LETCHER AND
   EASTERN PERRY.

AT 359 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED NEAR ARMINTA...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAZARD...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...BLUEFIELD
AROUND 405 PM EDT...HALLIE AROUND 410 PM EDT...CORNETTSVILLE AROUND
415 PM EDT...DIABLOCK AROUND 420 PM EDT...DAISY AROUND 425 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

JMW
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 4:12 PM EDT, 11 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 17, 3:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLMagoffin, Morgan41 min
Jul 17, 3:25 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJKLLeslie3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2013Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.