Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
227 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

THE GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND AND ALLOWING FOR
SOME SLIGHT POPS PAST 0Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. MOSTLY SMALL HAIL
HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE STRONGER CELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL WILL LINGER WITH STORMS MAINLY FROM I75 AND WEST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
FURTHER TO THE EAST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JKL AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN MORE EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAKER THAN STORM FURTHER
WEST. IN ADDITION TO SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RADAR
IMAGERY...HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1102 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS. CONVECTION IS TRYING TO WIND DOWN...ALTHOUGH A FEW CLUSTERS
REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY EXITS WEST AND HEIGHTS RECOVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM AROUND A VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS STARTING TO MAKE ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT
NOW. HAVE UPDATED FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS WEST AND HEIGHTS RECOVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR
THE PAST HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INDUCED BY
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. LATEST HRRR MODEL AND NAM12 SUPPORT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
MID-MORNING HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...BEFORE BLENDING IN WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PROVIDED A NICE REPRIEVE FROM THE
HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIPPED INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING ITS WHEELS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...MAINLY
SPREADING SOME AREAS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE RAMPS UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST TODAY...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOST
MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...LINGERING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE MID
80S...WITH DEW POINTS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING...BETWEEN THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND HEIGHTS REBOUNDING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. LOWS
WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG
THE RIVER VALLEYS. ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE THREAT OF AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE THE
UPPER LOW...VISITING US THIS WEEKEND...WEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED FEATURE IS
REPLACED OVER THE AREA BY A...MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL BE LIKEWISE AMPLIFIED AS IT SETTLES
OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT IT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH THE BREADTH OF THE WEEK...BUT
GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT DOES SO.
GRADUALLY...THE WESTERLIES WILL START TO PRESS DOWN FROM THE NORTH
AND SHIFT THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD IN TIME TOWARD THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO... THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID
LEVEL ENERGY BRUSHING BY THE CWA FRIDAY...BUT...ALBEIT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SMALL HEIGHT FALLS...NONE OF THE WAVES APPEAR TO BE
THAT SUBSTANTIAL IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A SEASONABLY WARM AND FAIRLY
TYPICAL WEEK OF MID SUMMER WEATHER. AS THE RIDGE ALOFT FADES WITH
TIME SO WILL THE SFC HIGH. WHEN THIS TAKES PLACE...FROM MID WEEK
ON...EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION SO THAT
POPS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
THE MINIMAL THREAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN GENERAL...THE POPS EACH
DAY WILL MAX OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE FADING
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS AND
THE RIDGES IN PLACE WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO...ANTICIPATE A BIT
HIGHER POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
DAILY...WHEN COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AREA. FINALLY...THE WARM
TEMPERATURES ON TAP WILL FEEL EVEN MORE UNCOMFORTABLE DURING THIS
UPCOMING WEEK AS THE HUMIDITY CREATES HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S FOR A TIME EACH AFTERNOON.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN DECENT OVERALL...THOUGH DID ADJUST POPS
DOWN A BIT DURING PEAK HEATING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED.
ALSO...ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANTICIPATED
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BEST
COVERAGE NEAR SME THROUGH 19Z...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 1Z. IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BRIEFLY IN ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG SHOULD FORM ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...BUT AT THIS
POINT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
424 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-141100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
424 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME
STRONG...CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE
RANGE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GEOGERIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
249 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

KYZ058-068-069-079-080-131945-
ESTILL-PULASKI-ROCKCASTLE-LAUREL-JACKSON-
249 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 345 PM EDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

   WESTERN JACKSON...
   NORTHEASTERN PULASKI...
   ROCKCASTLE...
   EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ESTILL AND
   NORTH CENTRAL LAUREL.

AT 249 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM BROMO TO BURR TO GAULEY...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MOUNT VERNON TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT VERNON...
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...RENFRO VALLEY
AROUND 255 PM EDT...INDIAN LAKES PARK AROUND 300 PM EDT...GUM SULPHUR
AROUND 305 PM EDT...SNIDER AROUND 310 PM EDT...THREELINKS AROUND 315
PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

JP

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