Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2013
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Jackson, KY
NWS Jackson, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 10, 2013, 4:50 PM EDT for Bath County, Menifee County, Montgomery County, Kentucky. It was in force for 40 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 10, 2013, 4:50 PM EDT (20:50 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 10, 2013, 5:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 40 min
- Issued by
- NWS Jackson, KY
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 0.75 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
Counties Bath County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY
The radar
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 3:15 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 5 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 155 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1493 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -33 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1009 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 62 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 99 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 10, 3:34 PM EDT, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 3:34 PM EDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 334 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 WILL ADD PIKE...LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTY TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WITH CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS ALREADY OCCURRING TODAY...THEY WILL BE PRIMED FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND NOT CLEARING SOUTHEAST KY UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS POINTING TOWARDS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.8 THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT SEE MUCH DECREASE UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND SEVERE THREAT ALSO INCREASING...WITH SEVERE REPORTS ALREADY OCCURRING IN CENTRAL KY. HRRR IS POINTING TOWARDS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL KY MERGING INTO A BOWING LINE WHICH WOULD INCREASE SEVERE THREAT OVER SE KY EARLY THIS EVENING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS MODELS HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH THE RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH THAT DOES NOT WANT TO GO AWAY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY MOVING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE AREA FOR A WHILE...BUT THEN THE MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW OVER OHIO ON SUNDAY. THE LOW THEN MEANDERS SOUTH OVER TIME. WITH ALL THE SOLUTIONS...ALL THE FRONTS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL JUST BE GENERAL AIR MASS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM AND HUMID. THE CONFIDENCE TENDS TO GO DOWN AFTER SUNDAY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD BECAUSE IT WILL BE SO HARD TO TELL WHERE THE AREAS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE. IN GENERAL WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND...HOWEVER DID AN EXTRA NUDGE TOWARD THE ECMWF. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT A BIT COOLER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME STAYING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF RAW OUTPUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLEARING SOUTHEAST KY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AFTER MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATER DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT TO MVFR TO IFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BEFORE 18Z ON THURSDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...SBH
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 4:13 PM EDT, 37 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 10, 3:28 PM EDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 328 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 KYZ113-115-117-118-102000- KNOTT-LESLIE-LETCHER-PERRY- 328 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... SOUTHWESTERN KNOTT... EAST CENTRAL LESLIE... WEST CENTRAL LETCHER AND EASTERN PERRY. AT 328 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FREW...OR 6 MILES EAST OF HYDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. KAS
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 4:14 PM EDT, 36 minutes before
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</html>The office that day
Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 11:32 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | JKL | Bath, Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Elliott, Estill and 27 more | 8 hr |
| Jul 10, 2:08 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Bell | 3 hr |
| Jul 10, 2:16 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Knott, Letcher | 44 min |
| Jul 10, 4:28 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne | 3 hr |
| Jul 10, 4:51 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Estill, Jackson, Rockcastle | 3 hr |
| Jul 10, 4:54 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Bath, Fleming, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell | 3 hr |
| Jul 10, 4:59 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Laurel, Whitley | 4 hr |
| Jul 10, 5:20 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Breathitt, Lee, Magoffin, Menifee, Morgan, Powell and 1 more | 25 min |
| Jul 10, 5:37 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Clay, Knox | 3 hr |
| Jul 10, 5:41 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Bath, Elliott, Morgan, Rowan | 2 hr |
| Jul 10, 6:40 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Bell, Harlan, Leslie, Letcher, Perry | 2 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2013Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2013
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.