Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
730 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING SO NO
UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. WILL BE EXPECTING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. INGESTED
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO FRESHEN THINGS UP A
BIT...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED. WILL UPDATE AGAIN LATER IN
THE SHIFT WHEN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CONTINUES AROUND THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS INDICATE WAVES ROTATING NORTH
AND AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL WITH EACH WAVE. HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO
CONCENTRATE ALONG OUR WRN BORDER WITH CNTRL KY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES WITH THE PERIODIC RAIN AND WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER...THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE ANCHORING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CNTRL PLAINS IS FCST TO FILL AND LIFT OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES
LATER ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
NRN CONUS BORDER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FEWER SHOWERS AND MAY GIVE ERN
KY A SMALL WINDOW TO DY OUT BETWEEN BOUTS OF PCPN. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY STABLE AND SIMILAR TO RECENT VALUES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEARLY MATCH EXPECTED DEW POINT
VALUES AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN OUR WRN HALF AND LOWER
80S EAST WITH THE EXPECTATION OF LESS RAIN AND MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN TO TRANSITION
TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL
LOW GRADUALLY FILLING AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SOME AMPLIFICATION OCCURS ONCE AGAIN AS A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...SHARPENING UP THE
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE LATEST MODEL BLEND CAME IN CLOSE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST...SO
HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR. LIKELY POPS WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW NEARBY. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT AN EXTENSION OF
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED. PWATS WILL REMAIN
HIGH...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS
WELL...SO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED THIS
WEEKEND.

AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY
OVERALL...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN...HOWEVER CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE THREAT OF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
GOING. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE FLATTENED
OUT A BIT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WILL WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH DID UNDERCUT THE BLENDED GUIDANCE A BIT WITH
ORGANIZED TRIGGERS TOO HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT. BY
THURSDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVERALL.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL FEATURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE TAF SITES...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH OCCASIONAL OCCURRENCES OF IFR CONDITIONS WHERE
SHOWERS AND STORMS DO NOT OCCUR FOR AWHILE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-052315-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
405 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. GUSTY WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
DOWN TREES IN AREAS WHERE THE SOIL IS SATURATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY...WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS AND TO
REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ABE/DUSTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
605 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

KYZ069-080-116-042300-
LAUREL-JACKSON-CLAY-
605 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 700
PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING...

   SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...
   NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND
   EAST CENTRAL LAUREL.

AT 605 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LIDA...OR 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF LONDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...MARYDELL AROUND
610 PM EDT...DEER LICK AROUND 615 PM EDT...PORTERSBURG AROUND 620 PM
EDT...URBAN AROUND 625 PM EDT...SIDELL AROUND 630 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

RICHEY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
926 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

KYZ051-052-059-060-106-108-050215-
MENIFEE-POWELL-ROWAN-BATH-MORGAN-WOLFE-
926 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH
1015 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING...

   EASTERN MENIFEE...
   NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...
   SOUTHEASTERN POWELL...
   SOUTH CENTRAL ROWAN...
   WESTERN WOLFE AND
   SOUTHEASTERN BATH.

AT 925 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HIGH FALLS...
OR NEAR CAMPTON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...RED RIVER GORGE
AROUND 930 PM EDT...VALERIA AROUND 935 PM EDT...POMEROYTON AROUND 940
PM EDT...WELLINGTON AROUND 945 PM EDT...KOREA AROUND 950 PM EDT...

PEOPLE IN THESE AREA SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO
40 MPH...OCCASIONAL  LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.