Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Jackson, KY

735 
WGUS73 KJKL 131034
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
634 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

KYC025-071-153-131230-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-130813T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MAGOFFIN KY-BREATHITT KY-FLOYD KY-
634 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN FLOYD...EAST
CENTRAL BREATHITT AND SOUTHERN MAGOFFIN COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM EDT...

AT 630 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED     
THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL HAD MOVED ACROSS 
THE WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT UP TO THREE INCHES OF 
RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH ANOTHER QUARTER INCH 
OR SO POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 AM. MUCH OF THE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS 
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
HOURS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING 
INCLUDE...PRESTONSBURG...ALLEN...ALVIN...BAMMER...BETSY 
LAYNE...BRAINARD...CARVER...DAVID...DOTSON...ENDICOTT... 
FREDVILLE...GALDIA...GUAGE AND GUNLOCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES... AS WELL AS
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 8261 3766 8260 3762 8260 3753 8262
      3755 8324 3763 8325 3772 8276 3769 8257
      3768 8257

$$

GREIF

218 
WGUS73 KJKL 131225
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
825 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

KYC025-071-153-131236-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-130813T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MAGOFFIN KY-BREATHITT KY-FLOYD KY-
825 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN FLOYD...
EAST CENTRAL BREATHITT AND SOUTHERN MAGOFFIN COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 830 AM EDT...

WHILE THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE COME TO AN END...THE RUNOFF FROM THESE 
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM CONTINUING THE THREAT OF 
FLOODING FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. 

LAT...LON 3767 8261 3766 8260 3762 8260 3753 8262
      3755 8324 3763 8325 3772 8276 3769 8257
      3768 8257

$$

GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
248 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

DID A QUICK NEAR TERM UPDATE TO HONE IN ON THE LATEST CONVECTIVE
PATTERN AND ADJUST THE WX AND QPF GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. ALSO TOUCHED UP
THE T/TD GRIDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1103 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT IS STILL FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. NEW RAINFALL IS MOVING INTO THE AREA OF FLOYD COUNTY WHICH
HAD FOUR INCHES OF RAIN EARLIER TODAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THAT AREA AS THE STORMS APPROACH. THERE IS ACTUALLY TWO WAVES
POTENTIALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. HAD REPORTS OF FLASH FLOOD FROM AT LEAST THREE COUNTIES
TODAY. SOMEONE JUST CALLED IN FROM FLOYD COUNTY AND SAID THEY
MEASURED 4 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. AT JACKSON...WE SET A NEW RECORD OF
2.25 INCHES FOR THE DAY AND THE DAY IS NOT OVER YET. THE BIG CONCERN
IS WHAT WILL THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TO DO AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN KENTUCKY. PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WERE WORKED
OVER PRETTY GOOD EARLIER TODAY. THE FEELING IS THOSE PARTS THAT WERE
HIT TODAY HAVE LOST THEIR LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND WILL MOST LIKELY
ONLY EXPERIENCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. OTHER PARTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...LIKE THE AREA WEST OF I-75 ARE MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
THE HEAVIER RAIN. PARTS OF FLOYD AND POWELL COUNTY WILL QUICKLY
REVERT TO FLOODING CONDITIONS IF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
ACROSS THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ALONG WITH THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE
MODELS ALL AGREED ON HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. AS DID
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. BASED ON AMOUNT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...IT SEEMED REASONABLE TO CONCLUDE THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS WITH TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...IS TRIGGERING
THE CURRENT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO WASH LATER THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO A MORE WELL
DEFINED BOUNDARY THAT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION LATER TONIGHT. THIS SECONDARY BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SEEMINGLY FOREVER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
CONCERN WHERE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE ON TAP AGAIN FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND RAIN THAT WILL BE AROUND...THE
FOG WILL NOT BE DENSE AT MOST LOCATIONS AND PROBABLY NOT NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WHEN SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WELL. THE MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW
WAS DERIVED FROM THAT LATEST GFS MOS GUIDANCE...GOING PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

AN AMPLIFIED 50H PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING THE COMMONWEALTH. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY
FCST FOR MUCH OF ERN KY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. BY FRI MORNING AN
INVERTED TROF AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CREEP INTO THE AREA
AND DAY TIME HEATING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS. THE FCST WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY UNTIL LATE FRI EVENING. EVEN AS THIS IS HAPPENING...
AT THE 50H LEVEL A VORT MAX IS DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TO
REINFORCE THE ERN TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO A CLOSED LOW AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS TO NEW ENG AND
ALLOWS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO INVADE THE REGION WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF PRECIP. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NRN CONUS BORDER.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THU BEFORE THE RETURNING SOUTHERLY
FLOW CAN BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S BY FRI. 80S WILL CONTINUE
INTO SAT BEFORE THE EXPECTED PCPN WILL RESTRICT HIGHS BACK TO AROUND
80 FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

AVN CONDITIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN RATHER POOR DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS AREAS OF CONVECTION AND PATCHY FOG MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THE THUNDER AND VCTS CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES OF LOZ AND SME. ONCE THIS WAVE OF PCPN CLEARS LATE THIS
NIGHT WOULD ALSO EXPECT LOWER VIS FROM FOG...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS
DENSE AS WE SAW LAST NIGHT AT JKL. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AND CIGS GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
415 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-141115-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
415 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS.

PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN REPORTS OF RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH OR ANY INCIDENCE OF HIGH WATER OR FLOODING TODAY.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1211 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

KYZ110-113-118-120-130500-
KNOTT-LETCHER-PIKE-FLOYD-
1211 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 100
AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING...

   SOUTHEASTERN KNOTT...
   NORTHERN LETCHER...
   SOUTHWESTERN PIKE AND
   SOUTH CENTRAL FLOYD.

AT 1211 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPIDER...OR
NEAR HINDMAN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...DEANE AROUND
1220 AM EDT...GREENLEAF AROUND 1225 AM EDT...SPEIGHT AROUND 1230 AM
EDT...BEEFHIDE AROUND 1235 AM EDT...DORTON AROUND 1240 AM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATE OF TWO
INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1236 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW GARRET            37.47N 82.85W
08/12/2013                   FLOYD              KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FLOODING DAMAGING A NUMBER OF HOUSES IN THE ROCK FORK
            COMMUNITY.

&&

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1252 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MONTICELLO              36.84N 84.85W
08/13/2013                   WAYNE              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 92 CLOSED NEAR HIGHWAY 776. HIGHWAY 167 CLOSED A
            FEW MILES OUT OF TOWN.

&&

KAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1258 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

KYZ120-130530-
PIKE-
1258 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTY THROUGH 130
AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING...

   SOUTHERN PIKE.

AT 1258 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BELCHER...OR
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BREAKS INTERSTATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...MOUTHCARD
AROUND 110 AM EDT...TOONERVILLE AROUND 115 AM EDT...AND PAW PAW
AROUND 130 AM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATE OF TWO
INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GREIF