Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
734 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THAT ARE DROPPING HEAVY RAINFALL
IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING WITH
DITCHES...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND CREEKS RUNNING FULL. RAIN FALL
RATES OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN SEEN ON THE RADAR. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH MADISON COUNTY...THERE WERE REPORTS OF FLOODING
THAT OCCURRED. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER TIME THIS LINE OF
STORMS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED DETAILS OF PRECIP VERY WELL IN RECENT
DAYS...AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
SHORT TERM SECTION OF THE NEW FORECAST EITHER. FEATURES ARE
WEAK...AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND NOT NEEDING MUCH TO SET
OFF CONVECTION. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE SREF FOR A PATTERN. WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR HINTS OF MODEL AGREEMENT
TO HONE IN ON PERIODS OF HIGHER OR LOWER POPS AS TIME GOES BY. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR POPS TO LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS TIME
GOES BY...BUT WITH A DIURNAL TREND SHOWING UP ALSO. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IS ANY FLOODING WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW FOR AN FFA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

THE WERE ONCE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE DEPICTING A
LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH...A SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE...AND
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL FEED INTO THE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THEREBY LEADING
TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS THE APPROACHING FRONT INTERACTS WITH
THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL INCREASE LIFT OF THE MOIST AIR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TUESDAY BASED ON
THIS...WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY PERIOD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS A RIDGE OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION AND UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THESE SYSTEMS TO WORK WITH...SO
POPS WERE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
BOARD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED...PARTICULARLY AFTER THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...BEFORE READINGS BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 60 BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS LINE
HAS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MOST LIKELY WILL DROP VSBY TO BELOW 1 SM
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOZ WILL GET A GLANCING BLOW FORM THIS
LINE...HOWEVER JKL SHOULD GET IT FULL FORCE AND WILL SEE THE WORST
CONDITIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS...THERE SHOULD BE A
DETERIORATION TO IFR TONIGHT. THE CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE HIT AND MISS
AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BLANKET THE ENTIRE AREA. THE CONFIDENCE FACTOR
ON TIMING AND EXTENT IS NOT HIGH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD TAKE
PLACE BY LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JUST
ABOUT ANY POINT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
447 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-083-104-106-108-111-111100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-WAYNE-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-WOLFE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...MONTICELLO...SANDY HOOK...
WEST LIBERTY...CAMPTON...BEATTYVILLE
447 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTENT OVER A
PARTICULAR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KYZ080-084>088-107-109-110-112>120-111100-
LAUREL-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-
BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LONDON...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...
WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...
PAINTSVILLE...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...
PIKEVILLE
447 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTENT OVER A
PARTICULAR LOCATION.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
ALSO AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
716 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

KYZ111-112-114-115-102345-
OWSLEY-PERRY-LEE-BREATHITT-
716 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 745
PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING...

   OWSLEY...
   NORTH CENTRAL PERRY...
   SOUTHEASTERN LEE AND
   WESTERN BREATHITT.

AT 716 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SCOVILLE...OR
NEAR BOONEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     FLOOD            SALYERSVILLE            37.75N 83.06W
08/10/2013                   MAGOFFIN           KY   PUBLIC

            VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS OCCURRING AND DITCHES WERE RUNNING
            FULL WITH WATER STARTING TO GO INTO THE ROADWAY.

&&

JJ

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