Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...

REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NW AND
E COAST SEA BREEZE...AND DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING SCT TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY FLOODING RAINFALL. SHORT DURATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE ISOLD CELLS AS THEY BRIEFLY
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THINK MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME
ISOLD OR LESS IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COASTAL WATERS
WILL STILL HAVE A THREAT OF ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES NNW TOWARD THE COASTAL
AREAS OF SE GA AND NE FL BASED ON LATEST NAM/GFS GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DUE TO RAINFALL.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LOW ACROSS NW KENTUCKY AND THE
MID/UPPER HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST RETROGRADE. A
SURGE OF MOISTURE...FROM REMNANTS OF CHANTAL...GETS FUNNELED INTO
THE AREA AS THE ESE FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN BOTH
FEATURES. MODELS ARE STRONGLY INDICATING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
APPROACHING THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND THEN SPREADING INLAND
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY DECREASES
FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS WITH
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MORNING AND INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. POPS WILL DECREASE EVERYWHERE DURING THE EVE AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (2+
INCHES) FROM TRAINING OF CELLS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TO AN EASTERLY
WAVE/TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) MOVING ONSHORE
INTO NORTHEAST FL ON MON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN NUMEROUS COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 75 AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND THIS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON MONDAY
AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO THE EASTERLY WAVE
AND SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB TO
NEAR 90 INLAND...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING COASTAL HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S. LOWS WILL FALL TO 70-75 INLAND...AND MID/UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST. STACKED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON
TUES...KEEPING A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WENT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH SCATTERED POP COVERAGE THAT TRANSITIONS
FROM COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE MORNING TO INTERIOR LOCATIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES...OR BACK TO CLIMO WITH LOWER 90S
INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SINK SOUTHWARD. DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST FROM
TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEST OF I-95...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
ONLY ISOLATED POPS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON THURS
AFTERNOON. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO SOAR INTO THE MID 90S INLAND...WITH UPPER 80S AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO. THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC RIDGING
SLIPS TO THE SOUTH BY FRI...WITH SOUTH/SW FLOW DEVELOPING AND
CREATING SLIGHTLY HIGHER DIURNAL POPS...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
PROGRESSING FROM INTERIOR LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
FRI/FRI NIGHT AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH CONVECTION LIKELY BECOMING ISOLD BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT
AROUND TAF SITES. IFR ANTICIPATED IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...VFR APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBY
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN TAFS. ON
SUNDAY...CONVECTION MAY GET AN EARLY START DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND EARLY START TO AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SO INTRODUCED
VICINITY CONVECTION BY 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS WITH ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE N CNTL GULF.
WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR MIDWEEK AS BOTH FEATURES RETROGRADE  AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DECREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MID
WEEK AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK SUNDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  89  71  89 /  40  70  70  50
SSI  76  85  75  86 /  30  60  40  40
JAX  72  87  72  87 /  40  60  60  50
SGJ  74  85  73  85 /  30  60  50  50
GNV  72  88  70  89 /  40  70  70  60
OCF  71  89  71  90 /  40  70  70  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

PP/ARS/KG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
122 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-141000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
122 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. SOME
OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 7
PM THIS EVENING.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE REGION. PLEASE
REFER TO STATEMENTS AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE NEXT WEEK.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING EASTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT
IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PLEASE
REFER TO STATEMENTS AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1241 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

GAZ150-164-131715-
CHARLTON-WARE-
1241 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL WARE
AND NORTHWESTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS
VALID UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

AT 1241 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER CHARLTON COUNTY...MOVING NORTH AT
15 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
THE INDICATED COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS
INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP
WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3112 8246 3112 8222 3093 8226 3084 8231
      3084 8242
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 184DEG 14KT 3093 8235

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1257 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

FLZ023-030-031-131730-
BAKER-BRADFORD-UNION-
1257 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
BRADFORD...SOUTHEASTERN BAKER AND NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 1257 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAIFORD...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND LAWTEY...RAIFORD AND ELLERBEE THROUGH 130 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS
OF 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3021 8232 3022 8206 2998 8207 2997 8225
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 176DEG 8KT 3004 8217

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
142 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

GAZ152-153-165-131830-
BRANTLEY-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-
142 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN
BRANTLEY...NORTHERN CAMDEN AND WESTERN GLYNN COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 142 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES NORTH OF WAVERLY...MOVING NORTH
AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
WAVERLY AND WAYNESVILLE THROUGH 230 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 55
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR
HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP
WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3126 8181 3130 8165 3108 8161 3103 8173
      3106 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 169DEG 4KT 3116 8171

SHASHY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

GAZ152-164-165-131945-
BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
BRANTLEY...NORTHEASTERN CHARLTON AND WESTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 253 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 10 MILES SOUTH OF TARBORO...MOVING NORTH AT 15
MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND TARBORO
AND WINOKUR THROUGH 345 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3106 8205 3115 8181 3084 8172 3083 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 161DEG 11KT 3090 8185

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

FLZ031-032-036-037-132000-
ALACHUA-BRADFORD-CLAY-PUTNAM-
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN CLAY...
EASTERN BRADFORD...EXTREME EASTERN ALACHUA AND NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 308 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER PUTNAM HALL...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND MELROSE
LANDING...MELROSE...MANNVILLE...INTERLACHEN...FLORAHOME...PUTNAM
HALL...LAKE GENEVA...KEYSTONE HEIGHTS...GEORGE'S LAKE AND CAMP
BLANDING THROUGH 400 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3013 8209 3011 8174 2956 8184 2965 8207
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 184DEG 23KT 2973 8196

PETERSON