Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST COAST SBRZ AND
WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY INLAND. RADAR
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP NEAR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BUT THE
ATLC SBRZ HAS NOT ADVANCED VERY FAR BY EARLY AFTN. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NC/TN MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE. WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD STORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST...THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SE GA. FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NE AND MEET THE ATLC SBRZ NEAR THE EAST COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. MOST ACTIVITY OVER NE FL WILL DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT
THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP STORMS ALIVE THRU THE
NIGHT OVER SE GA AND WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS (40-50%) THERE.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 2.3 INCHES OVER THE REGION. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 70%
FOR NOW. A SLOW STORM MOTION TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING BECOMING A CONCERN.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT INHIBITED DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. WILL LEAN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

FRI NIGHT-SUN...FRI NIGHT CONVECTION WILL TEND TO WIND DOWN LATE.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SAT...BROAD SFC LOW OVER N FL ASSOCD
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CREATE DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES CREATE SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS
AREA WIDE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.
MEANWHILE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL WILL MOVE NWD OFF THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA ALSO SUPPLYING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE MARINE AND COASTAL
ZONES. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION SAT NIGHT...LOWERING TO ~25% OR
LESS POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKING A BIT BETTER AS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE STARTS TO SHIFT WWD DUE TO ENHANCED ELY FLOW AND
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES W...SUGGESTING INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AROUND 50-60% AND ABOUT 30-40% COAST. HIGHS
BOTH SAT AND SUN WILL TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT-THU.
(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH RIDGING AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE NE AND SW CONUS...WITH TROUGHING RETROGRADING INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH TO
THE W/NW...AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD RIDGE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE POPS...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL COVERAGE MONDAY
LOWERING TO AROUND TYPICAL COVERAGE BY MIDWEEK. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR GNV AND
METRO TAFS REST OF THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. SSI LESS OF A
CHANCE. MVFR ANTICIPATED IN CONVECTION THOUGH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW VSBY IN HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND
DOWN TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY AT VQQ OTHERWISE VFR.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES RATHER HIGH ON FRI SO AT THIS POINT INTRODUCED
VICINITY CONVECTION STARTING AROUND 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SLY WINDS INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT OFFSHORE
WATERS SO WILL INTRODUCE SCEC HEADLINE. OTHERWISE FOR FRI THROUGH
WEEKEND WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.
REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE NWD OFFSHORE OF THE FL E
COAST ON SAT AND UP TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. MAIN RESULT APPEARS TO
BE INCREASED WIND/SEAS FOR A TIME ON SAT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TODAY AND LIKELY LOW RISK FOR FRI. INCREASED
SWELLS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY PROMPT MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  88  72  87 /  70  70  50  60
SSI  76  86  76  84 /  60  70  50  60
JAX  72  88  73  87 /  60  70  50  60
SGJ  73  87  74  86 /  50  70  40  60
GNV  71  89  72  87 /  60  70  50  60
OCF  71  90  73  88 /  50  70  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/SHASHY/MCALLISTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
312 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-121000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
312 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>