Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

.CURRENTLY...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC RIDGING
(1023 MILLIBARS) EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTH FL. OTHERWISE...RIDGES ALOFT REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE
TUTT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL A RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT INTO NORTHEAST
FL...WHILE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA
AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM
LAKE CITY TO JESUP. OUTSIDE OF RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES
INLAND HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 90S...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A FEW PULSE-TYPE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNSET IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TO WIDELY
SCATTERED...WITH LESS OF A THREAT FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY WILL WANE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET IN THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY...BUT MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. OTHERWISE...A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE IN INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF NORTHEAST FL.
EXPECT NEAR CLIMO LOWS...LOW TO MID 70S...FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON WED AS THE TUTT FEATURE
SPINS OVER SOUTH FL. A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST...AND SEA BREEZES WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITY OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN...LOW 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. ACTIVITY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN WANE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHEAST FL...AND COULD POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AS WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MINS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

THU-FRI...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVER SE GA WITH
HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT SUPPORTING RAIN CHANCES OF
50-60% UNDER PREVAILING SW FLOW. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTN/EVENING WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SAT-TUE...FORECAST WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVENTUALITY OF
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 60% CHANCES MOVING
ONSHORE SAT AS ESE FLOW DEVELOPS...THEN THE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
TRANSLATING INLAND DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SUN CONTINUED WITH 50%
RAIN CHANCES WITH A DAILY E TO W TRANSITION...AND THEN MON/TUE
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AROUND 45%. EVEN THOUGH THERE REMAINS A HIGH
DEGREE OF FORECAST TRACK UNCERTAINTY WITH TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
THIS WEEKEND...WITH A MODEL TRACK ENVELOP THAT FANS FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE FORECAST
MODELS DO CONVERGE ON AN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP PATTERN ACROSS SE GA
AND NE FL WILL BE LIKELY WITH TROPICAL AND FRONTAL MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER THE AREA. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
INCREASED THE 7 DAY RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO AROUND 2-3 INCHES FOR SE
GA AND NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS FOR GNV THIS AFTN WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. FARTHER TOWARD THE EAST COAST...THE SEA
BREEZE WAS ADVECTING INLAND AND HAD CLEARED CRG AND SSI...AND WAS
ALMOST WEST OF JAX THEN IT WILL BE ON VQQ'S DOORSTEP. THUS...DO
NOT EXPECTED PRECIP AT THESE SITES THIS AFTN/EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS AT GNV AND VQQ. COULD ALSO SEE
SOME LOW CIGS IMPACT THE OTHER TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH SO JUST INCLUDED FEW-SCT008 FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVE QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THU WITH PREVAILING WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS AND SEAS
2-4 FT. MAY HAVE TEMPO EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE
OFFSHORE LEGS THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. SWELLS STILL
EXPECTED TO START BUILDING LOCALLY FRI...WITH COMBINED SEAS
NEARING 5 FT WITHIN THE 20-60 NM FL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. AT
THIS TIME CONTINUED TO CAP COMBINED SEAS AT 8 FT SUNDAY WITH WINDS
20 KTS OR LESS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST REGARDING TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL.

RIP CURRENT...LOW RISK TODAY AND WED. ELEVATED RISK ANTICIPATED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SWELLS BUILD FROM THE ESE AS
CHANTAL NEARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  72  90 /  30  50  40  60
SSI  75  87  75  87 /  10  20  20  50
JAX  71  90  72  91 /  10  30  20  60
SGJ  72  88  72  89 /   0  20  20  40
GNV  70  92  71  90 /  20  40  40  50
OCF  70  92  71  89 /  20  40  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

NELSON/ENYEDI/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1215 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-101100-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1215 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOALTED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 301 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR BAXLEY ALONG THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER...AND FOR WAYCROSS AND ATKINSON ALONG THE SATILLA RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. A FEW STRONG
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL OR THE
REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS
THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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