Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
248 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON HAS ENDED AND NUMEROUS STORMS WILL FIRE ACROSS INLAND
SE GA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE EXPECT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
DOWNBURSTS/DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM OCALA TO ST AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.

TONIGHT...ONCE CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AFTER SUNSET EXPECT ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...THEN APPROACHING
SHORT-WAVE TROF AND POTENTIAL REMNANTS OF MCS CURRENTLY OVER ALABAMA
MAY BE TRACKING INTO PORTIONS OF INLAND SE GA...MOST LIKELY IN A
WEAKENING TREND...BUT OVERALL RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GOMEX AND
BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM REMAIN ELEVATED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UNSETTLED WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA WILL RESIDE ON THE MOIST SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DEEP TROPICAL SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED INSOLATION SO THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
TRAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL BE MOVING
ALONG TOWARDS THE EAST NORTHEAST BUT SOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTED LINES COULD RESULT IN SOME TRAINING OF CELLS WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS SINCE THE RICH
TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AT
TIMES. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE RATHER HIGH WITH WARM AND MUGGY NIGHTS IN STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME ON TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
COMBINE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DAY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND MOVING INLAND EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE ALREADY REMOVED TEMPO GROUPS FROM NE FL TAF SITES AS CONVECTION
HAS PUSHED NORTH AND/OR SOUTH OF THOSE LOCATIONS...AND EXPECT JUST
BRIEF TEMPO EXPECTED AT KSSI THROUGH 21Z...OTHERWISE JUST VCSH INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTM ACTIVITY TO PUSH INTO TAF SITES BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS...SO HAVE PLACED VCTS IN ALL TAF LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES
OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS AND CONFIDENCE HAS RISEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THERE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCEC HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2-4
FT RANGE...BUT WILL APPROACH 5-6 FEET AT TIMES OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  88  73  87 /  40  80  60  60
SSI  77  88  76  86 /  30  80  60  70
JAX  75  89  74  88 /  30  80  60  70
SGJ  77  91  76  87 /  20  70  60  60
GNV  74  88  74  88 /  30  70  60  70
OCF  74  88  75  88 /  20  70  60  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
     EDT SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHULER/HESS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
843 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-291000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
843 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DURING THE AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS INCLUDING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 105 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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