Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
217 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SCT'D
AFTN SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. CURRENT LOW
TEMP FCST LOOKS FINE.

UPR RIDGE REPLACED WITH NW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
SE OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTN. EXPECT EARLY DVLPMENT OF SCT'D SHRA/TSRA
ALONG W COAST SEA BREEZE...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS FCST AREA DURING
THE AFTN...WITH E COAST SEA BREEZE NOT MAKING MUCH INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN
LLVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. RIGHT NOW GOING WITH AROUND 40 POP FOR
AREA THURS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO LIKELY VALUES IF GREATER
COVERAGE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN WITH SHORTWAVE. NO SIG CHANGES TO CURRENT
FCST HIGH TEMP.

.LONG TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY FRIDAY WITH
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
REGIME WILL BRING A MOIST AND DISTURBED PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS FORECAST AREA. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL CREATE ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. JAVE CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AT 50%...BUT EXPECT
POPS TO INCREASE TO LIKELY (60-70%) OR CATEGORICAL (80-90%) AT
TIMES MAINLY DUE TO INFLUENCES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. ON MOST DAYS...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
NEAR THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN
TRACK INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS ARE NEAR JAX AND VQQ AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED CONDS THROUGH 20Z. HAVE VCTS AT TERMINALS
PAST SUNSET THEN CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT TERMINALS WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT INCREASING SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS COULD GET TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO 2 FT
EASTERLY SWELL. A LOW RISK IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  92  75  93 /  40  40  30  40
SSI  76  90  77  91 /  20  40  40  40
JAX  72  92  75  94 /  20  40  40  50
SGJ  74  89  74  90 /  20  40  40  40
GNV  71  92  73  92 /  30  40  20  50
OCF  72  92  73  92 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/TRABERT/GUILLET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
959 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-270845-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
959 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

CONTINUED EASTERLY SWELLS WILL PROMOTE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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