Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
215 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING TO NUDGE SOUTH ACROSS SE GA...WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXITING NE FL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS
PREVAIL WITH THE TROUGH...WITH ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE
JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS TREND SEEMS TO LINE UP WELL WITH
HIGH RES MODELS...WHICH INDICATE PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS NE FL
IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. WILL KEEP NUMEROUS POPS FOR MOST OF NE FL
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD...WITH
SCATTERED POPS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE GA...AND LOW POPS
FOR FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS...SO WILL USE
SEVERE WORDING ACROSS NE FL WITH THE STORMS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND WEAKEN LATER TNGT/SATURDAY.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED SOUTH OF JAX BY LATE
EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS DRY OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AS
THE FRONT HOVERS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW END CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTN ACROSS MARION COUNTY CLOSEST
TO THE FRONT. LOWS TNGT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...WITH UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S COAST. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 80S
NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE GULF SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO COLLIDE WITH A PREVAILING
EASTERLY WIND OVER THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD RESULT
IN CONVECTION INITIATION NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. RETURNING
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AN UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY. TEMPERATURE READINGS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS DOWN CLOSER TO THE COAST INTO THE
DAY SUNDAY. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
A SEA BREEZE TO FORM...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST COOLER.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A GENERALLY UNSTABLE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION COMING IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF WEAK COOL FRONTS TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF KSSI.
A COOL FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THIS PERIOD WITH WINDS COMING FROM
THE NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. THE TREND IS FOR VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE LOWERED TO BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AREA WIDE. WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TNGT/SATURDAY...BUT WILL KEEP UNDER SCEC
WITH AROUND 15 KT. S/SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH WINDS/SEAS REMAINING UNDER HEADLINE CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  91  65  91 /  10   0   0  10
SSI  73  86  72  84 /  20   0   0  10
JAX  71  88  67  87 /  50   0  10  10
SGJ  73  86  72  84 /  50  10  10  10
GNV  70  91  68  90 /  50  10  10  10
OCF  71  91  69  90 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/STRUBLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
322 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-150815-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
322 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
OUT OF OUR AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNING ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MKT/MZ/KG

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