Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

...HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM....NEAR TERM (THROUGH SUNSET)...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST FL WELL
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY ADVANCING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST GA. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH SUNSET.
MAIN THREATS IN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WITHIN HEAVIER PULSE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST FL IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE WHILE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 15 KTS. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND...AND WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WE HAVE INDICATED LIKELY POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

TONIGHT...FRONT WASHES OUT OVER SE GA AND SAGS OVER NORTH FL.
CONTINUED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER FLORIDA ZONES...WITH
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OVER INLAND SE GA WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. HUMID OVER NIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S
INLAND TO MID 70S COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

TUE THROUGH WED...THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER N FL TRIES
TO MORPH AND LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TUE OVER SE GA...BUT
THE BOUNDARY IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AND LINGERS OVER S GA WED DUE
TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS LINGERING FRONT...HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FL...AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW SUPPORT HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH A DIURNAL TREND DURING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WILL INDICATED 20-30% CHANCES OF MORNING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER NEAR THE MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE TUE
MORNING OVER NE FL...THEN RAISE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE 60-70% RANGE
TUE AFTN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE MOST
FAVORED. WED THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER SE GA WHERE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THEN
WILL ADVERTISE AROUND 605 RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTN. SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN/EVENING WITH THE MAIN
HAZARDS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW TEMPS NEAR 70 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH MON... THU & FRI...DEEP LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM POSITIONS OVER SE
GA AND THE FL PENINSULA AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO DRIFTS NNE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE INTENSITY AND EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
LEVEL GULF LOW ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA THIS REGIME DEFINITELY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE
HIGHEST...ALTO TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED BY ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE 40-50% RANGE WITH A N-S
GRADIENT DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOW MOISTURE VALUES OVER SE GA. THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...WITH THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER 5-DAY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
ADVERTISING WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...WITH HUMID NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

SAT-MON...AS THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS NNE OF THE REGION IT WILL
TRAIL A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA. ALTHO MEAN LAYER
MOISTURE VALUES DECREASE...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MEAN LAYER
TROUGHING MEANDERING OVER THE AREA AND HIGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...WILL ADVERTISE A DIURNAL TREND IN RAIN CHANCES IN
THE 40% RANGE EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR CLIMO HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND WITH HUMID OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN
THE LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEFLY
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE AFTER 01Z. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY AT
GNV AND VQQ. IFR CIGS WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT JAX...CRG...AND SSI
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR OR VFR TOWARDS 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SSW 10-15 KTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED ON TUE WITH A FRONT LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...THEN SOUTH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO THU AS THE GULF
LOW DRAWS A BIT CLOSER. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS 15-20 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE LIKELY
LATE THU INTO SAT AS THE LOW CROSS THE FL PENINSULA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH LOW RISK LIKELY ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  90  71  89 /  70  70  60  60
SSI  75  84  75  83 /  60  40  30  30
JAX  73  87  71  86 /  70  60  40  50
SGJ  73  84  73  83 /  60  40  30  40
GNV  72  88  71  87 /  40  70  60  60
OCF  73  87  72  87 /  40  70  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/NELSON/PETERSON

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
442 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

FLZ040-032130-
MARION-
442 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 442 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF LYNNE TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOSS BLUFF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND MOSS
BLUFF...LYNNE...JUNIPER SPRINGS AND SALT SPRINGS THROUGH 530 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2933 8199 2938 8174 2937 8174 2936 8166
      2934 8166 2933 8168 2928 8164 2905 8163
      2904 8165 2896 8166 2895 8166 2895 8189
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 234DEG 11KT 2916 8186 2894 8179

HESS

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