Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
156 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INITIAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG COASTAL SE GA AND INLAND
NE FL. WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA...THINK COVERAGE WILL
BE ENHANCED LATER THIS AFTN WHEN COMBINED WITH SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS
AND ANY SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES THAT FORM FROM THE INITIAL CONVECTION.
THUS...WILL USE NUMEROUS POPS LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING JUST INLAND
FROM THE COAST...WITH HIGH END SCATTERED POPS ELSEWHERE. WITH THE COOL
POOL IN CLOSE PROXIMITY AND SOME LAYER SHEAR...A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION
WITH RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING AS HEATING IS LOST. LOW
TEMPERATURES TNGT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WILL PREVAIL.

AFTER A QUIET MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY AFTN. WITH THE COOL POOL NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED...COVERAGE
WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAT TODAY...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE WEAKENING TROUGH. WILL USE
SCATTERED POPS AREA WIDE IN THE AFTN. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL.

WED/THU...AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO FLORIDA MID WEEK AND COMBINED
WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 50% EACH AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...
/THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SE. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR PUSHES INTO SE GA SETTING UP A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER PRECIP CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY  UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT SW
FLOW THU/FRI. THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASING NE FLOW AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES POSSIBLE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELLS AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  88  66  88 /  40  40  30  50
SSI  69  81  70  82 /  30  30  20  30
JAX  66  85  67  87 /  40  50  20  50
SGJ  67  83  69  83 /  20  30  20  30
GNV  65  87  66  87 /  50  50  40  50
OCF  67  88  67  88 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/TRABERT/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
344 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-211000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
344 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT LOCAL BEACHES
TODAY...DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS. REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY OVER
INLAND AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL PROMOTE AN ENHANCED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             FORT MCCOY              29.36N 81.97W
05/20/2013  M0.75 INCH       MARION             FL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL IN FORT MCCOY.

&&

SCHASE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
349 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

FLZ038-202030-
FLAGLER-
349 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
FLAGLER COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 349 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANDALUSIA...MOVING SOUTH
AT 5 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
ANDALUSIA THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2937 8133 2941 8148 2947 8150 2962 8151
      2962 8129
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 020DEG 5KT 2957 8143

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
411 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

FLZ024-GAZ165-166-202100-
COASTAL CAMDEN-INLAND CAMDEN-NASSAU-
411 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CAMDEN
AND CENTRAL NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 411 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES EAST OF KINGSLAND...MOVING SOUTH
AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
KINGSLAND AND YULEE THROUGH 500 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH
IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3058 8157 3064 8182 3088 8167 3085 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 014DEG 5KT 3079 8163

TRABERT

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