Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
148 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES MAINLY OVER EASTERN COUNTIES. A STRONG IMPULSE/COLD
POOL PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACRS GA IS PRODUCING SOME SEVERE STORMS.
RADAR MOSAICS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING TOWARD JEFF
DAVIS/COFFEE COUNTIES. THE COLLISION OF THESE STORMS AND THE SEA
BREEZE WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCTD SEVERE STORMS MAINLY OVER SE GA
AND OVER THE BORDER INTO EXTREME NE FL. THE VORTICITY ASSOCD WITH
THE COLD POOL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SPARK A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL OVERNIGHT AS IT
DRIFTS INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR SUNRISE.

MONDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH H5 TEMPS IN
-11C RANGE WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING STORMS. WILL KEEP 40-50% POPS AND EXPECT
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN LOW/MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING IS LOST. A PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AND SEABREEZE
INTERACTIONS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
DIURNAL/SEABREEZE CONVECTION...AND WILL USE CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST AREAS. MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECT VCTS BEGINNING
AT 18Z FOR JAX...VQQ AND CRG THEN SSI AND GNV AFTER 20Z. TEMPO
TSRA BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL SITES LESS SSI.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN BR AND POSSIBLE
LOW CIGS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT SO HAVE
CHOSEN NOT MENTIONED.

&&

.MARINE...
SE FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SCEC CRITERIA...WITH MINOR MAINLY
NIGHTTIME SURGES TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TONIGHT...INCREASING TO MODERATE
MONDAY AS LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  85  64  89 /  40  50  30  30
SSI  71  80  69  81 /  20  30  20  20
JAX  68  83  67  86 /  30  50  30  30
SGJ  69  81  68  82 /  20  40  10  20
GNV  67  85  65  88 /  40  50  30  30
OCF  67  86  67  89 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/ALLEN/GUILLET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
101 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-201715-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
101 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR ARE UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH UNTIL 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL PROMOTE AN ENHANCED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MKT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
547 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ENE ST. GEORGE        30.56N 81.96W
05/19/2013                   NASSAU             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED A FEW TREES DOWN ALONG RIVER ROAD NEAR
            HURST DRIVE OUTSIDE OF CALLAHAN. TIME IS ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

SCHASE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
556 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

GAZ135-136-151-192245-
APPLING-PIERCE-WAYNE-
556 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WAYNE...NORTHEASTERN PIERCE AND SOUTHEASTERN APPLING COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 556 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SCREVEN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND SCREVEN AND BROADHURST THROUGH 645 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3154 8181 3134 8207 3153 8223 3156 8225
      3168 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 317DEG 4KT 3155 8210

ALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
558 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FLZ040-192245-
MARION-
558 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 558 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES EAST OF FLEMINGTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND MCINTOSH...FLEMINGTON...REDDICK...CITRA...LOWELL...SPARR AND
ANTHONY THROUGH 645 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

LAT...LON 2940 8240 2949 8230 2949 8222 2946 8219
      2946 8221 2943 8221 2943 8217 2942 8214
      2943 8214 2943 8211 2933 8197 2915 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 314DEG 8KT 2940 8225

ALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
617 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FLZ040-192300-
MARION-
617 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MARION COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 700 PM
EDT...

AT 617 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURBANK...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND BURBANK...SANTOS...WEIRSDALE...SILVER SPRINGS SHORES...
OCKLAWAHA...MOSS BLUFF...LYNNE...LAKE WEIR AND BELLEVIEW THROUGH 700
PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. IF
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

LAT...LON 2915 8217 2933 8198 2910 8167 2895 8176
      2895 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 316DEG 5KT 2921 8205

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
623 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E FLEMINGTON          29.41N 82.25W
05/19/2013  E60 MPH          MARION             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATED THUNDERSTORM WINDS NEAR 60 MPH
            ON I-75.

&&

SHULER