Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1128 AM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 5 PM EDT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
THROUGH 5 PM EDT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COUNTIES ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM
MOVING INTO ATKINSON...COFFEE...AND NORTHERN CLINCH COUNTIES IN
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THAT HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZED HAIL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER (1006 MILLIBARS) IS DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN TEXAS. ALOFT...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE RAPIDLY
INCREASING ABOVE 850 MILLIBARS (5000 FT) THROUGHOUT OUR REGION.
THE MORNING SOUNDINGS AT JACKSONVILLE AND TALLAHASSEE DEPICTED 60
TO 75 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE (MINUS 10
DEGREES CELSIUS TO MINUS 20 DEGREES CELSIUS)...WHERE THE BULK OF
THE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES ABOVE AN ELEVATED INVERSION
BASED AROUND 700 MILLIBARS (10000 FT). SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO COASTAL
LOCATIONS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.

EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST FL THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP ACTIVITY ALONG SEA BREEZES. NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WITH
HEAVY RAINS COVERING A MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST GA TOWARDS MID
AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED A MAJORITY OF
OUR REGION WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
STRIKES. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING...THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR 70 THIS
AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 80 FOR
NORTH CENTRAL FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z AT GNV DUE TO
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 16Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AND RAIN IS EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS...WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER AT GNV THIS
EVENING...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR THE REMAINING
TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT THE
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT SSI.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS
CAN EXPECT MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT
REMAINS SOUTH OF THIS REGION. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST FL COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST THROUGH ALMOST MIDWEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  61  81  47 /  90  90  80  20
SSI  70  62  76  49 /  90  90  70  20
JAX  74  64  81  50 /  80  80  70  20
SGJ  74  66  80  53 /  80  70  70  20
GNV  76  66  83  51 /  90  60  80  30
OCF  79  66  82  53 /  80  50  70  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

NELSON/ENYEDI/CHASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1118 AM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-241530-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1118 AM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. HEAVY SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITHIN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
STRIKES. THE WARM FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WILL MIGRATE
NORTHWARD. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OFF THE COAST.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED
FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

NELSON

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