Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
155 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SE GEORGIA TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR A LINE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF HAZELHURST TO JUST NORTH OF JESUP. WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
SE AL HAS FORMED WITH BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TO THE
EAST...OVER SW GA. STRONG INSTABILITY INDICATED SOUTH OF THE FRONT
BY LAPS ANALYSIS WITH CAPE VALUES NOW 3000+ J/KG OVER SE GA.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS A POSSIBLITY.
OVER NE FL THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE A SEABREEZE COLLISION LATE
AFTN/EVE IN THE VICINITY...OR JUST WEST OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT BUT MAY RETURN TO
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE OVER S
FL MOVES NORTH. HAVE LIKELY POPS AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO 2.3". AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH GA NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE WEEKEND...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER ACROSS
SE GA...WITH A DEEP MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
REGION. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY INTO SE GA AND LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
POPS FOR THE NRN PORTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TAPERING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE SE PORTION. LIKELY POPS RETURN AGAIN EACH
AFTN/EVENING THIS WEEKEND...THEN DECREASING TO 20-30% CHANCES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS AND HIGH PRECIP COVERAGE WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN...WITH UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 FOR NE FL...AND MID
80S FOR MUCH OF SE GA. NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST
OVER FL PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN WEAKEN MID WEEK. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT POPS TO
DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE TEMPO TSRA IN ALL TAF SITES 21Z-01Z AS STORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SE FLOW WILL PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN 2-3 FOOT RANGE. LATE DAY STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  87  72  86 /  70  80  80  70
SSI  75  84  75  86 /  60  70  70  60
JAX  73  88  74  89 /  60  70  70  60
SGJ  74  84  74  88 /  60  60  60  60
GNV  73  87  71  89 /  50  70  70  60
OCF  74  87  72  90 /  50  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ZIBURA/TRABERT/MCALLISTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
351 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-161000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL
CAMDEN-
351 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL COMBINE
WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM MOTION IS NORTHEAST
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
REGION...PRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME...SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS THROUGH OUR
WEBSITE...TWITTER...FACEBOOK OR CALL OUR OFFICE. WE APPRECIATE YOUR
SUPPORT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ARS

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