Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
248 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/...

SCT TO NRMS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS W TO E REST OF
THE AFTN WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WE
ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS BOTH DRIER AIR ALOFT/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND DIURNAL MIN IN CONVECTION OCCURS. WE THINK POPS
WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 20% AFTER 1 AM. MINS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
MORE DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE GA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE ACROSS NE FL AND
20-30% ACROSS SE GA.  BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS OF NE FL SOUTH OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVE WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE. WITH MORE SUN ACROSS SE GA
TEMPS WILL WARM TO ABOVE CLIMO THERE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
WHILE HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL BE NEAR CLIMO.

.LONG TERM.../SAT THROUGH THU/...

A SURFACE FRONT STALLS AND OSCILLATES OVER NORTH FLORIDA SAT WHILE
DRIER AIR FILTERS OVER SE GA FROM THE WNW. PREVAILING WSW FLOW
OVER NE FL WILL BRING MORNING CONVECTION INLAND OVER THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO THE AFTN
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. ADVERTISED RAIN CHANCES OF 20-30% OVER
SE GA DURING THE AFTN/EVENING...UP TO 30-40% OVER NE FL WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

SUN THROUGH THU ANTICIPATE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES DUE TO HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT (PWATS STILL ADVERTISED BETWEEN 2 AND
2.25 INCHES BY MON) COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE SE
REGION. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISED RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40-50% DURING
THE PERIOD UNDER PREVAILING SW STEERING FLOW WITH A DIURNAL TREND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S POSSIBLE WITH
MUGGY MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE OCNL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN WITH CHANCES OF LESS THAN 50% AFTER 23Z
FOR TAF SITES. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 00Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHALLOW FOG TONIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF SITES ATTM.
LOWER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRI WITH PROBABILITIES OF 40% OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECREASE
SOME FRI-SAT AS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE SAT INTO MON AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO FRI DUE TO ELY SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  94  73  94 /  40  20  20  20
SSI  76  89  77  91 /  40  30  30  30
JAX  73  91  73  92 /  40  30  30  30
SGJ  73  89  74  91 /  30  40  40  30
GNV  72  91  71  92 /  40  40  40  40
OCF  72  92  72  93 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

PP/ARS/AW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1030 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-020830-
ALACHUA-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-APPLING-
ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CAMDEN (COASTAL)-
CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT TO 20 NM-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
GLYNN (COASTAL)-GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-
PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1030 AM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY AND
FRIDAY...

...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS DUE TO EASTERLY SWELLS. AS A
REMINDER...ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF LIFEGUARDS TO MAXIMIZE
SAFETY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY.

A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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