Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

.SHORT TERM...
SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA. ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER CENTRAL GA MOVE EAST ACROSS SE GA THROUGH THE
EVENING...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS THERE AS WELL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE SHOWN TREND OF DECREASING HOURLY POPS.

FOR WED...WEAK TROF ALOFT STILL OVER THE AREA...ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS...BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH SEA BREEZE. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER OVER
AREA...GOING WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90 INLAND, MID/UPR 80S COAST.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS
THE  AREA. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS. THE
EXCEPTION IS THAT THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS SE GA
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THERE.
HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS THERE WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLMO.

SUN THROUGH WED AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS AS MEAN LAYER TROUGHING
AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT (PWATS OVER 2-2.25 INCHES) POSITION AND LINGER
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PREVAILING SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH
WILL BRING A DOMINATE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE REGIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
CAP RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS AROUND 50%...BUT AS THE DAYS NEAR SUSPECT
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OF 6O-70% MAY BE NEEDED AS TIMING AND FEATURES BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED.

TEMPS WILL HOVER AROUND CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
MUGGY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA.
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AROUND STRONGER TSRA. BEST CHANCE OF TSRA
IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME AT TAF SITES. SHOULD SEE COVERAGE DECREASE
AFTER 00Z. HAVE VCTS UNTIL ABOUT 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED STORMS NEAR
SHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  89  72  93 /  70  30  30  30
SSI  75  86  76  88 /  70  60  50  30
JAX  73  89  73  91 /  70  60  50  40
SGJ  74  87  73  88 /  30  60  50  40
GNV  73  89  72  91 /  50  40  40  40
OCF  73  89  72  91 /  50  60  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

WOLF/PETERSON/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-010845-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS. OVER THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ANTICIPATED AT NORTHEAST FLORIDA
BEACHES DUE TO INCREASED EASTERLY SWELLS. FOR MAXIMUM SAFETY...
ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF LIFEGUARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
313 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     YULEE                   30.63N 81.57W
07/31/2013                   NASSAU             FL   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            LARGE TREE DOWN WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOUSE AT 86190
            PAGES DAIRY ROAD.

&&

ZALLEN

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