Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

WITH THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. IN THIS PATTERN...SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTERLY THROUGH THE FLOW. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...EXCEPT OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM COASTAL WATERS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ELEVATED EXPECT AFTERNOON DOWNPOURS.

HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MIX OF MET/MAV FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PENINSULA WILL START TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY
AND RETROGRADE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN
THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD. HOWEVER...A WEAK SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS
KEEPS OUR REGION IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST WIND REGIME.  THE DEEP
LAYERED TROF WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SE US THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WILL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND COMBINE WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH POPS RANGING FROM 40 TO 60
PERCENT.

THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LOWER PRECIP CHANCES INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING. PROB30
GROUPS FOR TSRA AND INTERMITTENT IFR TSTM CIGS THROUGH 23Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE NOCTURNAL HOURS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CECIL FIELD MAY HAVE BRIEF TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS BTW 10-13Z. FOR THE MOST PART...LIGHT SWLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS NEAR
INDIVIDUAL TSTMS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THE
NEXT COUPLE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-MONDAY...RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS WITH WINDS OUT OF THE S/SW UP TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET. ELEVATED THREAT FOR STORMS
MOVING INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...DEBILITATED RIDGE SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. LOCAL WINDS WILL BE SSW OR SW 10 KNOTS
NEARSHORE AND 10-15 KNOTS OFFSHORE ZONES. SEAS 2-3 FEET...BUT UP
SLIGHTLY TO 3-4 FEET OFFSHORE. STORMS MOVING FROM INLAND AREAS TO
ADJACENT ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  74  92 /  40  60  30  50
SSI  74  89  77  90 /  40  60  30  60
JAX  72  91  75  91 /  40  60  40  60
SGJ  73  89  75  90 /  30  50  30  50
GNV  72  89  74  90 /  20  60  30  60
OCF  72  91  74  91 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

CORDERO/STRUBLE