River Flood Warning 4, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
658 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY INTO TUESDAY...
...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE REGION
AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH. THE
BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE NORTH INTO NE FL LATER TODAY...MOVING INTO
SE GA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINS OCCURRED
EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND. THUS...WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR INTERIOR
SE GA UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL VARY SOMEWHAT WITH TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH NAM CONTINUING TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO SE GA EARLY TUESDAY...SWEEPING ACROSS NE FL TUESDAY
AFTN...EXITING TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. WITH THE NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
STRETCHING OUT AS THE SURFACE FRONT CROSSES...WILL USE GUSTY WINDS
FOR THE TSTMS TUESDAY. PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH MOST AREAS CLEARING OUT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...BUT REMAINING UNDER LAKE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONTAL APPROACH/CROSSING...WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
POSSIBLY BEING REACHED. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR MOST
OF SE GA IN THE NEARLY CONTINUOUS RAIN SHIELD...WITH MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS FAR NE FL...WITH 75 TO 80 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA IN MORE SCATTERED PRECIP. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT/TUESDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH A COOLDOWN TO
NEAR NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHING WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS ON WED. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT ON WED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR CLIMO HIGHS (UPPER
60S/LOW 70S) AND SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO LOWS (40S) FOR WED/WED
NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURS...AND THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY
THURS...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BRING MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO
OUR REGION. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW CLIMO (60S)...WHILE LOWS THURS
NIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S AT THE COAST.

DEEP TROUGHING WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRI.
COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON
FRI AND SAT REGION-WIDE...BUT AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WOULD PRECLUDE ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 50S THROUGHOUT OUR AREA FROM FRI THROUGH SUN. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY PERSIST INTO SAT NIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP LOWS NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR INLAND SECTIONS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZE APPEARS POSSIBLE ON SUN NIGHT AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SURFACE
RIDGING BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z AT SSI AND THE
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...AS RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSE
THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF GNV. MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT ARE EXPECTED AT GNV THROUGH
14Z. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS AFTER 15Z. NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH 04Z. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT ARE EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 4000 FT THROUGH
00Z. WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH A
RAPID INCREASE IN SPEEDS AFTER 00Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE AFTER 04Z...AS SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 10 KT
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KT AT 3000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO SCA OFFSHORE THIS AFTN AND SCEC NEARSHORE...VEERING
TO THE SOUTH TNGT/TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT...SHIFTING TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS TONIGHT/TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
SCEC TO SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND
ELEVATED SURF.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AT
BAXLEY...EVERETT CITY...AND CHARLOTTE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR INTERIOR SE GA UNTIL NOON TUESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  72  45  67 /  90  90  10   0
SSI  59  71  50  64 /  90  70  30   0
JAX  63  77  48  70 /  80  70  30   0
SGJ  65  77  52  69 /  60  70  30   0
GNV  63  76  49  71 /  60  80  30   0
OCF  65  77  51  73 /  50  80  40   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

ALLEN/NELSON

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>