Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Jacksonville, FL

102 
WWUS82 KJAX 020014
RFWJAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
714 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-020115-
/O.EXP.KJAX.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130202T0000Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
714 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR HIGH DISPERSION VALUES AND
LOW HUMIDITY FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE INCREASED...THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRED
AT 7 PM.

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/JAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
205 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

...SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND STILL EXPECT A
SHORT DURATION/LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF NE FL/SE GA
AND WILL LEAVE FREEZE WARNING AS IS.

TODAY...NEXT SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSH IN FROM THE SERN U.S. AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
NEAR BREEZY W/NW WINDS AT 15 MPH AT TIMES WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH
POSSIBLE. HIGHS NEAR CLIMO VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S. AND PUSHES RENEWED
COLD AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH ANOTHER LONGER DURATION LIGHT
FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND AREAS...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF HARD
FREEZE POSSIBLE. GENERALLY LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF FROST LIKELY...AND CLOSER TO LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP
FREEZE WATCH IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT PACKAGE.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND HIGHS AGAIN NEAR CLIMO VALUES IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

SAT NIGHT...NEXT RE-INFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHES ACROSS THE
SERN U.S. IN THE EVENING AND THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLOUDINESS BUT MEASURABLE
PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 10%. THE INCREASE IN WINDS/CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH NO FREEZE
AND/OR FROST EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
NEAR BREEZY ONCE AGAIN AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
EXPECTED. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ONCE AGAIN SEASONABLE
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MON-WED...CONTINUED SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS AND WEAK FRONTS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW AND MAX
TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING FROM THE 60S ON MONDAY TO NEAR 70 ON WED. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY AT TIMES.

THU/FRI...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION THEN OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THIS WILL DEVELOP AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH MAX
TEMPS CONTINUING AROUND 70 DEGREES INLAND AND 60S ALONG THE COAST.
ZONAL FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE SERN U.S. BY FRIDAY AND MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND HAVE INCLUDED A
15-20% CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THIS 06Z TAF PERIOD. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
TODAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
AT KSSI AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL
ACT TO ENHANCE THE WIND SPEEDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

RED FLAG CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET TODAY BASED ON LOW RH
VALUES...AND DISPERSIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. FOR GEORGIA...THE
FUEL MOISTURE CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET.

&&

.MARINE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN
INCREASED WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE OUTER
WATERS TODAY. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  27  61  36 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  61  37  60  43 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  64  30  63  38 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  63  37  62  42 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  65  30  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  67  31  68  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-NASSAU-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/STRUBLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1015 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-011500-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL
CAMDEN-
1015 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

...FREEZE WARNING FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT...

...FREEZE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA FRIDAY
NIGHT....

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

A LIGHT FREEZE WITH PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. SEVERAL HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE...AND A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WEST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ARS